For more than a decade, Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a, known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Julani, a Syrian militant leader, has undergone a massive transformation, moving from the fringes of Syrian terror group networks to becoming a central figure in the country’s renewed civil war. Initially a member of al-Qaida, al-Julani has distanced himself from the group, aiming to reshape his public persona and offer himself as an alternative to the Syrian regime of Basher al-Assad.

At 42, al-Julani recently spearheaded a bold offensive only hours after a ceasefire between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel started. His group has reclaimed control over Aleppo, Syria's largest city, thereby reigniting hostilities in a war that has long simmered into a stalemate in recent years.

"This is not just a military move; it's a statement," commented a Western diplomat in Beirut, highlighting the strategic implications of HTS's actions. "Al-Julani's ambitions are clear: to assert control and challenge Assad's regime directly."

His group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), previously known as al-Nusra Front, has managed to consolidate power in northwest Syria, particularly in Idlib Province. This rebranding from an al-Qaida affiliate to a less internationally reviled entity has been part of what analysts describe as al-Julani's "remarkable transformation."

"Al-Julani has been very effective at playing the long game," noted Dr Anu Khanchandani, a geopolitical analyst.

"By distancing from al-Qaida, he's not only trying to escape the terrorist label but also to make his group more palatable to different factions within Syria and potentially to foreign backers," Reuters previously reported.

The insurgent leader's efforts to appear more inclusive are evident in his public calls for religious tolerance and pluralism. In a 2021 PBS interview, al-Julani, dressed in civilian clothes, articulated his vision for a Syria where all religious and ethnic minorities could coexist. He stated, "We didn't say we want to fight," aiming to dispel notions of his group's hostility towards the West.

However, his past remains a shadow over his current endeavours. Al-Golani's history includes direct involvement with al-Qaida in Iraq, where he fought against US troops post-2003 invasion and later in founding Jabhat al-Nusra.

His strategic break from al-Qaida's central command was a calculated move to maintain autonomy and local support, as confirmed by his pledge of allegiance directly to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri instead of merging with ISIS.

Recent military gains have caught international attention, with some officials expressing concern over the stability in the region. "This resurgence of HTS could lead to renewed conflict or negotiations," said a UN official to the Guardian, speaking anonymously. "It's a complex situation where every move by al-Julani could either lead to peace talks or further warfare."

Despite these developments, al-Julani's efforts to legitimise his group are met with scepticism. A State Department spokesperson remarked: "While al-Julani may dress the part and speak the language of moderation, his history with al-Qaida and the violent tactics employed by HTS cannot be easily forgotten or forgiven."

Al-Julani's leadership has also seen tactical shifts, moving away from the hardline jihadist approach to governance and attempting to provide services and governance in areas under his control. This has included setting up a de-facto "salvation government," which, while criticised by many as a facade for control, has aimed at providing an alternative to Assad's rule.

His resurgence on the Syrian stage challenges the status quo where President Bashar Assad, supported by Iran and Russia, holds sway over roughly 70% of the country. The recent offensive by HTS has disrupted this balance, prompting a re-evaluation of Assad's grip on power.

The international community are watching events in Aleppo and Hama closely, wondering whether al-Julani's move is a genuine attempt at obtaining governance or another twist in the more-than-a-decade-old Syria's civil war.