Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK and former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, has emerged as the frontrunner by a wide margin in potential scenarios for Ukraine’s next presidential election, according to polling released on November 26 by the Social Monitoring Centre.

The survey, conducted between November 15 and 21, marks the first assessment of voter preferences since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Zaluzhnyi garnered 27% of support when respondents were asked whom they would vote for if an election were held next Sunday (November 24). Current President Volodymyr Zelenskiy followed with 16%, while former President Petro Poroshenko secured 7%. Other notable figures included Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, with 6%, and ex-Speaker of Parliament Dmytro Razumkov with 4%.

When respondents were allowed to select a secondary candidate, Zaluzhnyi retained 15% of preferences, followed by Budanov with 12% and Zelenskiy with 6%.

Combined support for candidates

When combining first and second preferences, Zaluzhnyi emerged with 42% of overall backing, more than double Zelenskiy’s 22%. Budanov received 18%, followed by Poroshenko at 10% and Razumkov at 7%. Other prominent figures, including Yulia Tymoshenko, Sergiy Prytula and Vitaliy Klitschko, each earned less than 6%.

The poll, commissioned by American Political Services, was conducted via telephone interviews with 1,200 respondents and has a margin of error between 1.8% and 2.9%.

Elections during wartime

President Zelenskiy has repeatedly stated that elections will not occur during the ongoing war, citing the need for a "just peace" before holding "fair elections." Ukraine’s constitution guarantees the continuity of presidential powers during martial law, and elections are prohibited under the law governing wartime conditions.

While originally stating that he would only serve one term when he was elected in 2019, Zelenskiy indicated in 2023 after the onset of the war that he would run for re-election the following year. He then cancelled scheduled elections, citing the above-mentioned legal restrictions, and suggested the idea of holding a national referendum to make territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire agreement. However, hopes for such a deal were dashed following Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk Region in August.

More recently, over half of Ukrainians have signalled their desire for negotiations to end the war with Russia in a Gallup poll conducted after 1,000 days of war, a stark contrast from the results of previous polls.

Although Zelenskiy’s term officially extended beyond May 21, 2024, his wartime presidency raises questions about his legitimacy as Ukraine continues to fight in the war with Russia.