From 30,000 feet, a recently released International Monetary Fund (IMF) report suggests that Tajikistan’s economy is flying high. The on-the-ground picture of most citizens’ daily lives looks a lot bleaker.

In its Tajikistan: First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, published on January 6, the IMF gives the Central Asian nation a favourable outlook. “Tajikistan is exposed to external geopolitical risks and climate challenges, but their potential impact is expected to be manageable in the near term,” the report states. “Economic growth is projected to moderate slightly to 6.7 percent for 2025, while the rate of inflation is expected to stay close to the central bank’s target of 6 (±2) percent.”

The report also says the government deficit is projected to be manageable, enabling a reduction of public debt. The IMF report goes on to urge the government to build more of an economic cushion for the economy. “Policies should aim to strengthen resilience against external shocks and address structural constraints to attaining more sustainable and inclusive growth,” it states. “Improving revenue mobilization and spending efficiency is critical to increasing space for development priorities.”

The IMF’s projections are consistent with those offered by other international financial institutions (IFIs), such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Tajikistan’s macro outlook contrasts sharply with its micro reality: the statistics tell only part of the story. Economic growth in Tajikistan so far has been far from inclusive. For example, per capita household income in Tajikistan rose 19% in 2022 (the last year for which data is available) over the previous year’s level, an impressive gain. But the average per capita income still only amounted to just under $864 in 2022, meaning Tajikistan remains Central Asia’s poorest state by a significant margin.

In addition, remittances from labour migrants working abroad comprise a major portion of most families’ incomes, an indicator that the domestic economy is in suboptimal condition, unemployment is widespread and what economic activity that is occurring benefits only a narrow segment of society. 

Official IFI data suggests that roughly a quarter of Tajiks live in poverty. But a Tajik government report issued in the autumn of 2024 offered hints that a much larger portion of the population is struggling to meet day-to-day needs. According to that report, the cost of living in Tajikistan is significantly outpacing the available income of many families.

Social data suggests that the quality of life for millions of Tajiks is poor. The World Bank, for instance, reported in 2023 that the country had the highest percentage of inhabitants, roughly 45%, lacking access to safe drinking water. Only about a quarter of the country’s rural population were served by “piped water supply services.”

“Tajikistan’s water supply sector faces significant challenges due to decades of underinvestment and a lack of proper operation and maintenance,” the World Bank report noted. “According to estimates, Tajikistan will need a minimum investment of $800 million to ensure access to safe water supply services for the whole population by 2030.”

A World Bank report issued in 2024 cautioned that state-controlled companies had too large a role in the country’s economy. Watchdog groups rank the Tajik government as among the most repressive and corrupt in the world. “Wealth and authority are concentrated in the hands of [President Emomali] Rahmon and his family,” Freedom House noted in its most recent summary of Tajikistan in its annual Freedom of the World report.

Instead of investing in infrastructure that can benefit a broad swathe of the population, Rahmon’s administration is focusing on developing a mega project – the Rogun Dam – with IFI assistance. Tajik officials say the dam will improve the quality of life for all Tajiks by ensuring regular electricity supplies. But some watchdog groups say the massive facility has the potential to become a white elephant with the emergence of cheaper wind- and solar-power options.

To raise funds for Rogun construction, Tajik officials started selling Rogun shares to citizens. Many, in particular state-sector workers, report having been pressured to purchase shares. So far, shares worth hundreds of millions of dollars have been sold since the first offering in 2010. But according to an Asia-Plus report, investors have yet to see any dividend payout.

This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.