Thailand's rice exports are expected to fall below 8mn metric tonnes next year due to a stronger baht (THB) and increasing competition from India, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, as reported by Bangkok Post.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the association, said that while persistent flooding in northern and northeastern Thailand is not expected to affect rice exports this year, 2025 may pose challenges. "We anticipate Thailand will exceed its annual export target of 8.2mn metric tonnes this year. If monthly exports continue at an average of 600,000 metric tonnes for the remainder of the year, the total could reach 9mn metric tonnes," said Chookiat.

Despite this year's positive outlook, Thailand's rice prices are struggling to compete in key tenders. Indonesia's rice import agency, Bulog, has been holding monthly tenders for around 450,000 metric tonnes of rice, but Thai rice has been outpriced by cheaper offerings from Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan.

Rice production in Vietnam, India, Pakistan, and Myanmar has improved due to favourable rainfall during the La Niña weather pattern, adding more supply to the global market.

India has also signalled a potential return to white rice exports in the fourth quarter of this year, which could increase competition and drive global rice prices lower. This, in turn, could put downward pressure on Thai domestic rice prices. The US Department of Agriculture forecasts India will remain the world's largest rice exporter in 2025, with shipments expected to reach 20mn metric tonnes.

Thailand is projected to export 7.5mn metric tonnes, tied with Vietnam, while Pakistan is expected to ship 5.6mn metric tonnes. The Thai Rice Exporters Association has warned that 2025 could be a tough year as India resumes full rice exports and the strong baht continues to erode Thailand's price competitiveness. The association predicts Thai rice exports could fall to between 7mn and 7.5 mn metric tonnes next year.

At the opening ceremony of the Thai Rice Networking Forum 2024 this week, Deputy Commerce Minister Suchart Chomklin emphasised efforts to promote Thailand's rice market and boost confidence among trading partners, highlighting the country's policies for the development of rice and related products. Thailand's rice exports have performed well this year.

In the first seven months of 2024, the country exported 5.68mn metric tonnes of rice, a 22% increase year-on-year, generating THB132bn in revenue, a 51% rise compared to the same period last year. The surge has been driven by rice importers stockpiling for food security amid India's ongoing export restrictions.