Bulgaria’s economy grew by 2.2% y/y in the third quarter of 2024 and by 0.5% q/q according to the latest flash estimate from the National Statistics Institute (chart).
The annual growth figure shows a speed-up compared to the previous nine quarters, when the economy was badly hit by Russia’s invasion of nearby Ukraine and the deepening political crisis in Bulgaria.
The European Commission has projected that Bulgaria’s economy will grow by just 2.4% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. On the other hand, the EBRD has a significantly more optimistic forecast for economic growth of 2.6% this year from 1.8% in 2023. In 2025, the economy is expected to expand further, by 3%.
GDP at current prices stood at €27.25bn (BGN53.29bn) in Q3. Gross value added increased by 2% y/y in the third quarter, according to the NSI.
Final consumption was up by 4.6%, while gross fixed capital formation fell by 4.9% y/y, seasonally adjusted.
Exports of goods and services increased by 0.1% and imports of goods and services increased by 2.9%.