Deep in a spiral of snap elections and dysfunctional parliaments, Bulgaria was supposed to hold its seventh general election since 2021 on October 20. However, that date has now been postponed indefinitely due to controversial decisions by key politicians.

Although this looks like a conflict between the main players within Bulgaria, there have been suggestions that most politicians are stalling the process intentionally, so that the next vote can be scheduled after the US presidential election. Its outcome, some say, will determine whether Bulgarian politicians will swing to a style of ruling modelled on Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s, with closer ties to Russia, or will if they will maintain Bulgaria’s broadly pro-Western course.

There are signs that Gerb leader Boyko Borissov is ready to take Orban’s course if Donald Trump wins the US vote. He said recently that the new values his party will pursue are traditions, moral and Christian values. 

Populist Gerb remains the largest party in the current parliament, although unlike in its earlier years it has been unable to form a stable government. Despite the party’s ostensible pro-Western orientation, the party is already prepared to back laws in a similar illiberal mould to those adopted in Orban’s Hungary. For example, Gerb MPs recently backed controversial legislation banning so-called ‘LGBT propaganda’ in schools. When Borissov commented on the decision to support the legislation, he said that if Western values would “turn me into a woman”, he will not follow them.

“Borissov is very good at stalling and making U-turns depending on his own interest and the global and local political moods,” a source close to the current political talks told bne IntelliNews.

Previously Borissov expressed a highly positive attitude towards Trump during his term as US president. In 2019, a delegation led by Borissov, at the time prime minister, visited the US and met with Trump and other officials, after which Borissov complimented Trump personally on his appearance and attitude.

“[W]hat I have seen on TV and the way they have presented Trump – they always show him with distorted face, with holes in the cheeks. And in fact, he is a very nice, healthy and flexible person. Two hours passed very pleasantly. I could not believe that this was the person I had looked at so many times and wondered how he could even be in this position. He is unique. He was very prepared on all topics,” Borissov said after the visit in an interview with bTV.

Interim government delayed 

Another potential sign that the delay of Bulgaria’s snap vote until the US presidential election could be intentional is President Rumen Radev’s decision not to sign a decree appointing a new caretaker government. Radev, who has taken a pro-Russian stance since the invasion of Ukraine, raised objections to the proposed interior minister Kalin Stoyanov, despite Stoyanov holding the post in both the current caretaker government under Dimitar Glavchev and in the previous regular government led by Nikolai Denkov.

There were calls for Stoyanov to resign from Denkov’s government after excessive police violence during a football match. At the time, Denkov demanded his resignation, but Gerb, a partner of Denkov’s Change Continues-Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) coalition in previous parliament, fiercely opposed this.

Another key player – Delyan Peevski, the Magnitsky-sanctioned co-leader of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) – also seems willing to delay the process, to find out whether the White House would lift its sanctions on him. If Trump wins, this seems more likely than if Kamala Harris takes office. In case of a Harris presidency, Peevski would have to actively play a pro-Western role if he is to have a hope of the sanctions being lifted.

Cultivated apathy brings crippled democracy

While key Bulgarian politicians appear to be making complicated calculations regarding the date of the upcoming general election, there is another phenomenon hampering the country’s democratic processes. Voters are becoming more and more apathetic, and turnout is falling gradually from one election to the next. It was below 35% in the last snap vote, on June 9, and might fall further in the next election.

Analysts suggest this is the result of years of intentionally cultivated mistrust in state institutions, which has resulted in Bulgarians no longer seeing any point in voting or participating in any way in the process.

However, the low turnout affects some parties more than others. Radical pro-Russian parties like Vazrazdenie have benefitted from the avid support of their voters, while Gerb and the DPS have a high degree of control over their voter bases. 

A report by the OSCE's ODIHR mission ahead of the previous general election, on June 9, suggested that the share of controlled voting remains significant in Bulgaria.

Two years earlier, the Bulgarian Anti-Corruption Fund NGO published its own investigation showing that brokers had been buying votes for the main political parties – Gerb, the DPS and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) – with one broker often buying for several political parties at the same time.

By contrast, reform-minded, pro-Western voters tend to be highly critical of the parties representing them, or to see no meaningful alternative. That has led to a falling off of support for CC-DB, once seen as a bright hope for less corrupt, EU-oriented Bulgaria. 

The lower the turnout, the higher the chance of populist and pro-Russian formations entering parliament and being able to form coalitions that would drag Bulgaria away from its pro-Western path and back to the Russian orbit.

This creates a paradox, as a recent survey by Alpha Research showed that the majority of Bulgarians are pro-Western and do not trust Russia or its President Vladimir Putin. Bulgaria, once a loyal ally to Russia, has cooled towards Putin and the Kremlin since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the country also managed to end its complete energy dependency on Moscow.

However, the rejection of Russia has done little to change the outcome of recent elections, with voters continuing to turn away from pro-Western parties. A victory for Trump in November would further embolden the populists, the far right and the pro Russians to put Bulgaria on a new, illiberal course. Only a strong pro-Western campaign ahead of the next vote can prevent that outcome.