With Bashar al-Assad's departure to Moscow marking the end of his family's half-century rule in Syria, the United States is facing a complex decision: will it end its occupation of a third of the country and return control of Syria’s oil fields to the new government?

US forces have been in Syria since 2014 as part of the campaign against ISIS (the Islamic State). It maintains a military presence in the country's oil-rich northeast, where approximately 900 troops remain deployed, originally sent to support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the fight against terrorism.

But the US military presence has long been entwined with control of the country’s oil fields. Before the 2011 outbreak of civil war, Syria's oil production peaked in 1996, reaching around 600,000 barrels per day, before falling to 406,000 bpd in 2011. Oil was a major component of Syria's economy, contributing about 25% of government revenues and accounting for roughly 35% of the country's export earnings but had declined to approximately, but output plummeted to 24,000 bpd by 2018, mostly from fields under US-backed SDF control.

The Assad-era Syrian Oil Ministry claimed earlier that US forces and their allies were taking up to 66,000 bpd from eastern fields, representing about 83% of Syria's production at the time. The ministry estimated losses to the sector at $105bn since the war's onset, one of the reasons the cash-strapped regime.

Syria has proven oil reserves of approximately 2.5bn barrels of oil and 241bn cubic metres of gas, according to pre-war estimates. These reserves are primarily located in the eastern and northeastern regions of the country, particularly in Deir ez-Zor, Hasakah, and parts of Raqqa. It is also thought that there are more offshore reserves in the Mediterranean, but they remain largely unexplored due to the perennial conflicts.

US occupation ongoing

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's revealed at the weekend that the US government has held its first direct talks with the interim government backed by the rebel Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group now controlling Damascus. The US is hoping to maintain influence during the transition of power, despite HTS's designation as a terrorist organisation since 2018 and a $10mn bounty on its leader’s Ahmad al-Sharaa’s head from the CIA.

"The success we've had over the last years in ending ISIS's territorial caliphate remains a critical mission," Blinken said in Jordan on December 15, emphasising concerns about potential Islamic State resurgence during Syria's political transition.

However, the elephant in the room is if the US will leave the country or control over Syria’s oil fields to the HTS-backed government. Neither side has mentioned the subject as Syria’s international relations remain in a state of flux following the fall of Assad on December 8.

Trump’s change of tack?

The US occupation of Syria remains illegal under international law, as there are only three reasons one country can enter another: if you are attacked (as Russia did Ukraine); if you are invited in (as Assad did Russia); or if you have a UN mandate (which the US does not).

President-elect Donald Trump famously declared in 2019 that US troops remained in Syria "only for the oil" but he has signalled there may be a change of policy ahead of his January return to office and that the US might pull out of Syria.

"Syria is a mess, but is not our friend," Trump posted recently. "The United States should have nothing to do with it."

It was President-elect Trump himself who signed the presidential order to keep US troops in Syria and tap the oil resources during his first term in office, as a way to recoup the costs of the war. The Biden administration also kept the oil flowing across the border between the two countries despite early promises Washington would pull troops out of the region. Instead, Biden sent more troops from northern Iraq across the border to shore up support for the existing troops controlling the oil flows out of the country.

The transition complicates US strategy in Syria. While American forces and the SDF control significant oil infrastructure, the emerging political landscape may require Washington to recalibrate its position, particularly as regional powers jockey for influence in post-Assad Syria.

The continued presence of US troops will likely depend on several factors: the new Syrian leadership's stance toward American forces, the stability of Kurdish-controlled regions, and most crucially, whether Trump's administration views the oil fields as strategically vital enough to maintain a military footprint despite his isolationist rhetoric.

As reported by bne IntelliNews, despite the heavy US troops presence, they have been the constant target of several opposition groups and remain a source of friction in the country. On October 28, several explosions were heard at the US base in the Al-Omar oil field, according to reports in local media as attacks are ongoing since their arrival.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Mehr News Agency quoted sources as saying that the base had been attacked, and thick smoke could be seen rising above it. According to the reports, drones were used in this operation and hit their targets.

The SDF controls the country’s largest oilfields, including Omar, the largest, Ward, Kewari, Jafra, Jarnuf, Azrak, Kahar, Afra, Sueytat and Galban. Omar had been producing around 30,000 bpd prior to the Syrian Civil War, but was in the hands of Daesh (ISIS) from mid-2011 until October 2017.

To the northeast, Block 26 continues to be managed and controlled by the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC)/SDF and its affiliates, including Al-Jazeera Oil Co. In 2022, the managing director of operator Gulfsands, John Bell, said that oil from the company’s assets is “being produced illegally by other actors.”

Earlier in January, locals reported that three US servicemen were killed and dozens injured on the border with Iraq following a drone attack on their activities.

Gas opportunities

The situation with gas production is less clear, but the most recent verified data, from 2011, showed output of 8.95mn cubic metres per day of dry natural gas, and more recent estimates of just 3.4 mcm per day.

These are marginal amounts and about enough to  cover domestic needs, but Syria’s significance in the gas business is that as bne IntelliNews reported, Syria could become a major energy hub, connecting the giant gas fields in Qatar directly to the vast European market via cheap and reliable pipelines. Turkish officials have openly discussed reviving a joint Qatari-Turkish pipeline connection that runs through Syria and has been blocked for years by instability in the country and Russian machinations that previously monopolies the gas delivery business in Europe. Both those obstacles have now been cleared away.

Qatar has the third largest gas reserves in the world, behind Russia and Iran. Türkiye Today, on December 10, reported on the renewed prospects for the Qatar-Turkey pipeline.

The scheme was rejected in 2009 by Assad and has since not returned to the agenda. At the time of Assad’s rejection, there were some reports that his regime came out against the pipeline in order to protect the interests of ally Russia, which was then Europe's top supplier of natural gas. Russia, at various times, has pushed the idea of a pipeline running from Iran, via Iraq, to Syria.