Congratulatory words for Trump mask fears of destabilisation in Western Balkans

Congratulatory words for Trump mask fears of destabilisation in Western Balkans
Congratulatory messages to Trump are already pouring in from Balkan leaders, but a new Trump presidency is probably bad news for the region. / bne IntelliNews
By Clare Nuttall in Glasgow November 6, 2024

As news broke that Donald Trump was closing in on a victory to secure a second term as US president, congratulatory messages from leaders across the Western Balkans have begun to pour in. However, behind these polite gestures, there is mounting anxiety about the potential consequences of Trump’s return to the White House for regional stability, particularly in the volatile situations in Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo.

A return of Trump to the White House may have far-reaching and destabilising consequences for the Western Balkans, according to a European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) paper published shortly before the election. The paper warns that a new Trump administration would likely move from a neutral position to one that actively promotes Serbian interests, potentially undermining the fragile stability in Bosnia, reviving contentious land swap proposals between Serbia and Kosovo, and emboldening leaders with secessionist aims.

Congratulations for Trump

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was one of the first European leaders to congratulate Trump on his election victory, along with his close ally, Hungary’s right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

"Congratulations @realDonaldTrump on your victory. Together, we face the serious challenges ahead. Serbia is committed to working with the USA for stability, growth, and peace,” Vucic wrote on X (formerly Twitter), the platform controlled by Trump supporter Elon Musk.

It would be too simplistic to say that a Trump win is good news for Serbs and bad news for Albanians and Serbia’s other historic rivals.

Indeed the 45th US president — soon to be the 47th — is mainly notable for his unpredictability. Diplomatic sources told bne IntelliNews that the early months of his first presidency were marked by chaos and inaction in US embassies globally, as his administration was unprepared with appointees.

Amid the region's top ethnic Albanian politicians, Kosovan President Vjosa Osmani and Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama were also quick to post his congratulations to Trump.

Rama complimented the US politician on his “remarkable victory”, adding that he looks forward to the “great privilege of working with the 47th president”. Perplexingly, Rama accompanied his warm words with a photo of his TV showing an unflattering picture of Trump with his eyes closed.

Trump's man in the Balkans

The Balkans got more attention later in his presidency with the appointment of Richard Grenell as special envoy.

The Trump administration’s activity in the Balkans culminated with the signing of a much-criticised economic agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, shortly before he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden. This was spearheaded by Grenell, who reportedly went on to maintain close ties with Vucic since Trump’s election defeat in 2020.

The Balkans might get more attention from the outset this time around, not least because there is speculation that Grenell could either be back in the region, or get a higher foreign policy post, potentially secretary of state.

Bosnia destabilisation risks

Along with Vucic, one of the quickest politicians to congratulate Trump was the president of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska region Milorad Dodik — an outspoken fan of both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Dodik first commented on his shared values with Trump. “For Republika Srpska and me personally, Trump's victory symbolises a return to the values ​​we value — family, freedom of choice and the right to preserve our own traditions,” he wrote in a long post on X.

More ominously, given his repeated pushing for Republika Srpska’s independence from Bosnia, he continued: “I expect the new US administration to be a partner that understands the importance of stability and supports local leaders to decide their own future The ECFR paper highlights how Trump’s return could remove the deterrent effect of US sanctions on actors like Dodik, who has signalled his ambition to withdraw Republika Srpska from central institutions. A rollback of sanctions, the paper argues, would create, “a legal, economic, and logistical bonfire” for Bosnia, leaving its institutions fractured and borders vulnerable.

“A Trump win could be particularly destabilising in the Western Balkans, emboldening Serb nationalists in Bosnia and Kosovo (as well as Belgrade),” commented Jeremy Cliffe, senior fellow at the ECFR, on X.

“Bosnia & Kosovo are in for a rough time. Trump's previous presidency was destabilising. This time it could be catastrophic. I can assure you; Bosnia's internal separatist enemies are already planning their next moves while, sadly, I can also assure you that the Bosniaks are not,” wrote Joseph J. Kaminski, associated professor in the department of political science and international relations at the International University of Sarajevo, in an X post.

The US’ biggest fans

Across the Western Balkans, polls have shown that pro-US sentiment is strongest in Albania and Kosovo — a state that created itself in 2008, when it unilaterally declared independence from Serbia with the support of the US and other Western countries.

Ahead of the vote, a huge poster appeared in Pristina showing Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris together. That sparked jokes on social media that Kosovo supported both Trump and Harris, or simply supports US elections.

Still, Pristina’s relationship with the US has deteriorated in recent years, under its current prime minister, leftwing nationalist Albin Kurti.

Both the US and the EU have taken measures — they have been careful not to call them sanctions — against Kosovo following the escalations of tensions between Kosovan law enforcers and ethnic Serbs in the north of the country. Assuming Grenell gets a foreign policy post under Trump, Washington is likely to be much tougher on Kurti.

“Albin Kurti is a problem, and everyone knows it,” Grenell said in July following the closure of Serbian Post branches in northern Kosovo.

“Too many Biden-Harris Administration officials and European officials are simply too weak – Kurti isn’t remotely deterred by the statements (and you don’t even say his name). You have tools to give consequences – use them now before there’s an escalation," Grenell wrote on X.

Back in 2020, Kurti explicitly accused Grenell of being behind the overthrow of his first government, by putting pressure on Vetevendosje’s then coalition partner to pull out from their coalition. A year later, Kurti’s Vetevendosje was elected with a landslide, but the party faces a general election in February 2025.

What will change?

Despite these signs, there remain analysts who question to what extent Washington’s policy towards the Balkans will actually change.

In Montenegro, political commentator Ljubomir Filipovic wrote in an op-ed for the Cafe de Montenegro (CdM) portal that following Trump’s victory, “Serbia and the Serbian regime have another chance to dominate regional politics He noted that while Vucic “stayed on the sidelines” during the electoral campaign, the “organised Serbian diaspora in America stood 100% behind Trump”.

However, the extent to which things will change is unclear, according to Filipovic: “All this cannot significantly change Washington's course in the region, because the Biden administration was also quite "sympathetic" towards the Vucic regime. What can change is the intensity of that course, which can only be stronger now Similarly, Balkan historian Marko Attila Hoare wrote on X: “The more optimistic scenario is that, as in 2016, Trump's bark turns out to be worse than his bite, and he's restrained by the establishment. Otoh [on the other hand] as regards Bosnia (as opposed to Ukraine, Kosovo etc.) I'm not sure the status quo is the lesser evil.

Back in business

Meanwhile, in the months leading up to the election, businessmen linked to Trump, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner, were busy in Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia.

It was revealed earlier in 2024 that Affinity planned to build a luxury hotel complex to replace the derelict Yugoslav General Staff headquarters, bombed by Nato in 1999. Kushner presented the project to Vucic in June.

Affinity also plans to develop a luxury resort on Sazan Island, a former military base and protected marine park in Albania.

There is some controversy surrounding the projects. US Senate Finance Committee chair senator Ron Wyden has warned that luxury developments planned in Serbia and Albania would give the governments of the two Western Balkan countries leverage over Trump’s family members.

The US Senate Finance Committee revealed that Serbian and Albanian government officials proactively approached Affinity Partners with proposals for real estate projects in their respective countries. The findings, disclosed on September 25 in a statement from the committee, are part of an ongoing investigation into the firm's foreign investments.

The senator said in his letter that the “prospective real estate deals give Albanian and Serbian governments leverage over [the] Trump family”.

Previously, in July, North Macedonia's President Gordana Siljanovska Davkova welcomed a delegation of executives from the Trump Media & Technology Group and other business figures associated with Trump.

Siljanovska Davkova met with a US delegation, including prominent business figures like Chris Pavlovski, founder and CEO of Rumble, Howard Lutnick, founder and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, and Devin Nunes, former Californian congressman and executive director of the Trump Media & Technology Group. Lutnick and Nunes are known to be close associates of Trump.

The visit came shortly after the election of the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE party, which defeated the social democratic SDSM government, along with the election of Siljanovska Davkova, the presidential candidate backed by VMRO-DPMNE.

 

Features

Dismiss