Moldova’s imports increased by 4.6% y/y to $2.16bn in Q2, but non-fuel imports (chart) rose by a more significant 15% y/y to $1.87bn creating a trade deficit in the non-fuel area ($1.06bn) that was 30% larger than in the same period last year, according to data published by the statistics bureau.

At the same time, the country’s exports dropped by 11.5% y/y to $860mn. This was an effect of smaller export of mineral fuels and petroleum products (re-exported from other countries to Ukraine), which fell by 71% y/y to $45mn.

Moldova’s non-fuel exports actually remained rather constant in Q2 compared to the same period last year, at $813mn. The country’s non-fuel exports saw a boost in the first two quarters of 2022 partly due to re-exports of grains from Ukraine, but they remained more or less constant over the past two years — in nominal terms and expressed in US dollars. This is not surprising given the country’s stagnant economy (its GDP rose by 0.7% y/y in 2023) and subdued industrial activity.

There are, however, exceptions to this: the manufacturing of “machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; parts thereof”, where the exports rose by 6% y/y to $202mn (one quart of total non-fuel exports) in Q2 this year, continuing the upward trend seen over the past years.

Moldova’s trade balance has been significantly impacted by the volatile flows of oil, mineral and petroleum products (and grains as well) imported by Ukraine through alternative routes after the outbreak of the Russian invasion.  The volatile prices of oil, mineral and petroleum products (natural gas included) also impacted the value of these flows as well as the value of net imports (for own consumption).