Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index declines amid recession fears

Romania’s macroeconomic confidence index declines amid recession fears

/ bne IntelliNews

By Iulian Ernst in Bucharest March 26, 2025

Romania’s Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, measured by the CFA Romania Association, fell by 3.8 points in February to 36.6 points, remaining below the neutral 50-point mark on the 0-100 scale, Bursa reported.

The decline reflects growing concerns over economic uncertainty and a potential recession.

"The confidence indicator, particularly the current conditions component, continued to decline amid recession risks and economic uncertainty. This aligns with reduced economic growth expectations for the year and a widening budget deficit," said Adrian Codirlaşu, president of the CFA Romania Association.

The drop in February follows two months of improvement but keeps the index above its November low, which was recorded during a period of political instability. The decline was mainly driven by a sharp 10.4-point fall in the current conditions component to 45.9 points, while the expectations component, already at a low level, edged down by 0.5 points to 32 points.

The 12-month inflation forecast for March 2026 stands at an average of 4.85%.

Meanwhile, the state budget deficit projection for 2025 has worsened, reaching an expected 7.4% of GDP, up from the previous forecast. Public debt as a share of GDP is anticipated to rise to 59% over the next year.

Economic growth expectations for 2025 have also declined, with analysts predicting an average growth rate of just 1.1%.

#romania #cfa #macro #confidence

Read in IntelliNews Pro

Get IntelliNews Pro

Related Content

COMMENT: Europe’s outlook improves as Trump makes Ukraine conflct progress

Romania offers to monitor Black Sea ceasefire alongside Bulgaria and Turkey

COMMENT: What impact will a raft of protests across the Emerging Markets have?

COMMENT: Europe’s outlook improves as Trump makes Ukraine conflct progress

Romania offers to monitor Black Sea ceasefire alongside Bulgaria and Turkey

COMMENT: What impact will a raft of protests across the Emerging Markets have?

Data

Czech central bankers keep interest rate at 3.75%

Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, meeting wide market expectations. The rate is the lowest since January 2022.

Turkey burns through towards $30bn in reserves after detaining Imamoglu

Regime has struggled to stabilise the financial markets but, as things stand, the situation does not threaten its survival.

Polish retail sales disappoint in February

Polish retail sales fell 0.5% year on year in constant prices in February, defying the consensus, which expected a 3.2% annual increase.

Kosovo’s trade gap up 13.6% y/y in February

Exports dropped by 4.3% y/y to €67.3mn in February, while imports were up 10.9% to €518.6mn.

Polish industrial production fall 2% y/y in February

Poland’s industrial production contracted 2% year on year at constant prices in February (chart), after a revised fall of 0.9% y/y the preceding month, unadjusted data from the statistical office GUS showed.

Czech central bankers keep interest rate at 3.75%

Turkey burns through towards $30bn in reserves after detaining Imamoglu

Polish retail sales disappoint in February

Kosovo’s trade gap up 13.6% y/y in February

Polish industrial production fall 2% y/y in February

Dismiss

Chat with usLiveChat