Moscow may face blackouts and significant electricity shortages in the coming years thanks to sanctions unless major investment is made into expanding generating capacity, according to a development scheme prepared by Russia's System Operator, the sole dispatcher of the country's energy system.

The System Operator says that the potential deficit could reach 1.6 GW by 2030 and rise to 4.2 GW by 2042 but hopes that plans to radically increase Russia’s nuclear power generation capacity will meet the growing demand.

Officials were first alerted to the potential electricity shortages last year, caused by sanctions that have cut Russia off from crucial technology needed to maintain the power infrastructure. Russia was heavily dependent on imported technology, and Siemens-made high-efficiency gas turbines in particular, which domestic industry is unable to manufacture.

At the same time, Russia is also no longer able to import the parts needed to simply maintain the equipment it already has, since sanctions were tightened in June 2023 and General Electric and Siemens refused to continue to maintain their equipment in Russia.

Foreign turbines account for approximately 9% of the capacity in the Russian power system, according to the System Operator's estimates.

Adding to the crisis is the ageing infrastructure of Russia's power grids. Distribution network components are reported to be 70% worn out, while the wear and tear on main lines is about 50%.

The Kremlin’s solution has been to move away from gas-fired turbines and expand its fleet of nuclear reactors, as part of its long-term energy strategy.

According to the plan, the installed capacity of Russian nuclear power plants (NPPs) is expected to reach 34.6 GW by 2042, accounting for 12.3% of the country's total installed capacity. By 2024, the capacity will increase again to 45.8 GW, or 15.9% of the total capacity, compared with 29.5 GW (11.9%) at the beginning of 2023. The proposed increase in nuclear generating capacity will more than cover the shortfall predicted by the System Operator.

To achieve these goals, Russia plans to build eleven new NPPs by 2042, and work is already ongoing to modernise and expand some existing reactors.

Smolensk NPP

Preparations have started for the second stage of the Smolensk NPP, with Rosenergoatom, the state nuclear energy corporation, planning to invest over RUB700bn ($8.3bn) in the project. Construction of the new units, featuring third-generation state-of-the-art VVER reactors with a total capacity of 2.4 GW, is set to begin in 2025, with the potential for expansion to four units.

The Smolensk NPP-2 is intended to replace the ageing Smolensk NPP-1, which currently operates three 1-GW RBMK reactors – the same technology as the Chernobyl plant that blew up in 1986.

These reactors, commissioned in the early 1980s and upgraded after the Chernobyl disaster to fix those design flaws, are approaching the end of their operational lifespans, with the first unit scheduled to be decommissioned by 2027, the second by 2025 and the third by 2034.

Kursk NPP

In parallel, Rosenergoatom is modernising the Kursk NPP-2 plant, a 2.5-GW facility designed to replace the existing Kursk NPP-1, which is also using the outdated RBMK technology that will be replaced by modern VVER reactors.

The new plant, expected to cost approximately RUB225bn ($3.5bn), will feature two 1.2-GW VVER-TOI reactors, the first of their kind in Russia. These reactors are designed with advanced safety features, including a core melt trap and passive cooling systems, and are compliant with the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) standards.

Construction of Kursk NPP-2 began in April 2018, with significant milestones already achieved, including the completion of the roof of the turbine building and installation of standby diesel generators.

The first two units are slated to be commissioned alongside the decommissioning of the Kursk NPP-1 initial reactors, ensuring a seamless transition in electricity supply for the Central Russian Chernozem region.

However, the fate of work on the Kursk NPP is now uncertain following the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) incursion into the region on August 6, which at the time of writing were some 30 km away from the power station.

While analysts don’t believe the Kursk NPP is a military target for the AFU, the chaos the incursion has caused in the region will delay work on the modernisation programme if it persists for any length of time. As bne IntelliNews reported, the railway system in the region has already been paralysed and a large part of the local population has been evacuated.