As COP29 nears its end, a new report reveals that China’s cumulative emissions within its borders have surpassed those of the European Union’s 27 member states. The analysis is by Carbon Brief.

The data arrives as tense discussions unfold at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, which ends on November 22, where the focus is on “historical responsibility” in debates over a new global climate finance target. Talks, amongst representatives of nearly 200 countries,  are expected to spill over into November 23.

The Carbon Brief analysis indicates that 94% of the carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C – as suggested by the Paris Agreement – has already been used.

 Since 1850, global cumulative emissions have reached 2,607bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2), with China’s total hitting 312 GtCO2 in 2023.

China’s figure now exceeds the EU’s 303 GtCO2 but still trails – by a long way – the United States’ 532 GtCO2.

Despite this, Carbon Brief – a climate research site – suggests China is unlikely to overtake the US in historical emissions due to current policies and technological trends. Even with its 1.4bn population, China’s per-capita emissions remain significantly lower than those of the EU and US, at 227 tonnes of CO2 compared with 682 tCO2 and 1,570 tCO2 respectively.

For 30 years, China has constructed more than 1,000 coal plants for generating power, as its economy has accelerated by a factor of more than 40. In fact, China is by far the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) globally on an annual basis. China has said its emissions will peak this decade.

Emissions and climate talks

The Carbon Brief findings come as negotiators at COP29 debate how responsibility for emissions should influence contributions to the new climate finance target. Draft text explicitly ties historical emissions to financial burden-sharing, stating that wealthier nations with high cumulative emissions should shoulder greater responsibility.

“An expanded donor base has been long warranted,” said John Podesta, President Joe Biden’s premier climate adviser, said recently. “This is not 1992 in terms of the economic structure of the world,” he added. The UN climate charter was originally established in 1992.

“Developed country parties shall establish burden-sharing arrangements...based on cumulative territorial CO2 emissions,” reads one section of the draft, dated November 16, 2024. However, the document remains contested, with key provisions yet to be finalised.

Should the proposal stand, China – one of the world’s top historical emitters – would be expected to contribute, though it has resisted mandatory obligations and has been viewed as “developing.”

At the same time, nations like Saudi Arabia have criticised developed countries for consuming a disproportionate share of the global carbon budget, while failing to lead sufficiently in emissions reductions.

Historical context and ongoing shifts

Developed nations historically account for the majority of global emissions. By 1992, when the UN climate framework was established, Annex I nations comprised 22% of the global population but were responsible for 61% of historical emissions.

However, this proportion is declining. By 2024, developed nations’ share of total historical emissions is projected to fall to 52%, with emerging economies – China foremost among them – accounting for a growing fraction.

China’s emissions have surged over the past three decades. In 1992, its cumulative emissions were less than half those of the EU. By 2015, they had grown to 80% of the EU total. Now they have overtaken it altogether.

Still, when adjusted for population size, China’s per-capita emissions remain much smaller than those of developed countries. Furthermore, other metrics, such as emissions embedded in trade and colonial histories, provide additional perspectives on responsibility for global warming, said Carbon Brief.

US still leads in total emissions

While China has become the world’s second-largest historical emitter, the US remains far ahead with cumulative emissions projected to reach 537 GtCO2 by the end of 2024. That total is two-thirds higher than China’s and nearly double the EU’s.

Although China’s annual emissions are now roughly twice those of the US, its cumulative total may never catch up. Projections based on current policies from the International Energy Agency suggest steep declines in emissions for both countries, making it unlikely for China to close the gap.

Climate finance and the road ahead

As COP29 nears an end, the question of how historical emissions influence financial contributions remains hotly debated. While China has acknowledged its role in global warming, President Xi Jinping’s administration insists any financial contributions will remain voluntary.

These discussions underscore the growing complexity of global climate negotiations, where the balance between historical responsibility and future commitments continues to dominate the agenda.

COP29

At COP29, poorer and more vulnerable nations have been trying to get $1.3 trillion for climate damage and adaptation, and developing clean energy. At least $1 trillion is often seen as the minimum, by experts. The wealthy world is offering far less. Also at issue is whether the money will be grants or loans.

Negotiations as of November 20 were going in circles, Alden Meyer of the think tank E3G, told the Washington Post.

In Brazil, where the summit of G20 nations wrapped up mid-week, half the world away in Rio, Brazil, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres told attending leaders of the world’s 20 wealthiest countries that “The success of COP29 is largely in your hands."

In opening remarks earlier in the week at the World Leaders Climate Action Summit, Guterres also said that 2024 has been “a masterclass in climate destruction.” He emphasised the critical role of climate finance in addressing the crisis: “The world must pay up, or humanity will pay the price…climate finance is not charity, it’s an investment. Climate action is not optional, it’s an imperative.”