The Ukrainian military faces a critical morale crisis at the front lines, with as many as 20% of soldiers reportedly deserting their posts amid Russian advances, according to The Economist. The article, citing a source within Kyiv’s general staff, depicts the dire situation unfolding as Ukrainian forces struggle to maintain defence lines against a steady Russian push.

Russian troops have reportedly gained more territory in recent months than in all of 2023, reclaiming nearly 1,146 square kilometres since August—a 25% increase on the preceding seven months, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data derived from DeepState sources. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, in a rare admission of the gravity of the conflict, called the latest Russian offensive “one of the most powerful” since the invasion’s outset.

In eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, a key battleground, the capture of Vuhledar in early October has allowed Russian forces to press ahead into strategically important areas, securing the town of Selydove last week and now reportedly threatening the critical cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Russian advances in the open fields surrounding Vuhledar have accelerated in recent weeks, with both cities now under threat of encirclement. Pokrovsk and Kurakhove serve as logistical strongholds for Ukrainian operations in the region, underscoring the tactical blow that their loss would represent.

On Ukraine’s southeastern front Russian forces have intensified their offensive, making slow but steady gains in the cities of Toretsk and Niu York, where urban combat grinds on. In mid-October, Russian forces breached the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal barrier, gaining access to key routes toward Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar. These advances bring Russian forces closer to the critical defence hubs of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has expressed concern over the lagging delivery of Western support, noting that only 10% of the $61bn in US aid pledged in April has arrived. Delays have been attributed to logistical and bureaucratic obstacles. Zelenskiy stressed Kyiv’s urgent need for long-range weapons to combat Russian forces, adding that if these delays are not resolved, Ukraine could face the difficult choice of accepting peace under “unfavourable terms” or continuing the fight with reduced support, especially as the prospect of a second Trump administration looms.

In response to mounting casualties and depleted forces, Kyiv has increased recruitment efforts. The Ukrainian government overhauled its conscription system earlier this year, introducing stricter penalties for draft evasion. Since the escalation of conflict in February 2022, over 1mn Ukrainians have been conscripted, with a further 160,000 expected in the coming months, according to MP Aleksey Goncharenko. However, Ukrainian MP Anna Skorokhod stated last week that the number of deserters has now surpassed 100,000.

Despite a steady flow of reinforcements, Russia’s human resources advantage has become evident. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a speech in July, noted Ukraine’s challenge in maintaining frontline troops. “Despite the raids, the unending waves of total mobilisation in Ukrainian villages and cities, the current regime finds it increasingly hard to send reinforcements to the frontline,” Putin said, adding that “the country’s manpower is exhausting.”

As Russian forces consolidate their position, Moscow continues to call for a settlement that addresses core security issues, including Nato’s Eastern expansion, a key factor in its 2021 security proposal to the West. Nato, however, rejected these terms, reiterating that alliance membership remains outside Moscow’s purview.

Russian forces advancing

Since Russia took the initiative in the fighting following the fall of Avdiivka on February 17, the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) have made steady, albeit, slow progress taking back more territory in the last few months than in all of 2023.

At the same time, UK generals are reporting that Russia is intensifying its troops’ assaults as the possibility of ceasefire talks start to manifest themselves, but that has resulted in casualty rates spiking to 1,500 day, according to British intelligence.

Russian forces have made significant advances in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, capturing more territory in this period than during any other time this year, BMB Russia reports.

The southern part of the Donetsk Region has become the most critical sector of the front line. The capture of Vuhledar in early October gave Russia a strategic advantage in the surrounding open fields, leading to some of its fastest territorial gains since the war’s early months. Last week, Russian forces took control of the town of Selydove, and they are now focusing on the cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. Kurakhove in particular is under threat of encirclement on three sides. Both Pokrovsk and Kurakhove are vital logistical hubs for Ukrainian defence in the Donetsk Region. Russian advances are now threatening the town of Velyka Novosilka to the west, and, if they continue, they could eventually reach the eastern borders of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 

To the northwest of Pokrovsk, heavy urban fighting continues in the cities of Toretsk and Niu York, where Russian forces are making gradual progress through the ruined streets. After mounting sustained pressure on Chasiv Yar, Russian troops breached the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal defensive line in mid-October, advancing along the main highway to the occupied city of Bakhmut and entering the urban area of Chasiv Yar itself. If Russian forces continue pushing forward, they could soon close the distance to the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka.

Amid this intensified Russian offensive in the Donetsk region, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed frustration, telling reporters last week that Ukraine has received only 10% of the $61bn in US aid pledged in April. He attributed the delays to bureaucratic and logistical hurdles. Kyiv has also repeatedly requested long-range weapons from the US to target Russian military assets deeper inside Russian territory. If these supply issues are not addressed soon, Ukraine may face a tough choice: either accept peace under unfavourable terms or continue the fight alone, especially now with the prospect of a Trump presidency on the horizon.