Ukraine will try to recover control of Crimea from Russia using diplomacy and won’t waste “dozens of thousands” of Ukrainian lives by using force, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview with Fox News on November 21. 

Zelenskiy went on to repeat that Kyiv will not legally recognise the Russian-annexation of the peninsula in 2014 and will not relinquish its claims to the Crimea as part of any mooted peace deal. 

Ukraine is widely expected to be forced into making territorial concessions as the basis of any negotiations with Russia and the Kremlin has made it clear that the status of the Crimea is not up for negotiation. 

“We cannot legally acknowledge any occupied territory of Ukraine as Russian,” Zelenskiy told Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst. “That is about those territories... occupied by [Russian President Vladimir] Putin before the full-scale invasion, since 2014. Legally, we are not acknowledging that, we are not adopting that.” 

But Zelenskiy said that Ukraine  is open to a diplomatic solution for Crimea. 

“I was already mentioning that we are ready to bring Crimea back diplomatically,” he said. However, he emphasised that Ukraine cannot afford to incur massive human losses to achieve this aim through military means. “We cannot spend dozens of thousands of our people so that they perish for the sake of Crimea coming back... We understand that Crimea can be brought back diplomatically,” Zelenskiy added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the same day that Moscow is ready to start peace talks and was willing to make “limited” concessions, hinting that the Kremlin would return some occupied territory to Kyiv, but excluding the Crimea. 

Russian territorial gains 

Russia currently holds 20% of Ukraine’s territory and is enjoying a tactical advantage on the battlefield and has captured six times more territory in 2024 than in all of 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Moscow’s forces have seized approximately 2,700 square kilometres of land this year, up from the 465 square kilometres gained in 2023. The pace of these advances has accelerated in recent months, with over 1,000 square kilometres taken between September 1 and November 3 alone, the ISW reports, as cited by the BBC.

The eastern Donbas region remains the focus of Russia’s efforts, with key logistical hubs such as Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and Kurakhove in Donetsk coming under sustained attack. Moscow’s forces are now advancing towards Pokrovsk, a strategic Ukrainian supply centre in Donetsk. Overall, Russia is estimated to control 110,649 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, the ISW data shows.

While Ukraine has also made advances, its efforts have faced setbacks in the Russian region of Kursk, which Ukraine invaded in August. Ukrainian forces seized just over 1,171 square kilometres during an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region earlier this year. Russian forces have since retaken nearly half of the Kursk territory, deploying 50,000 troops to the area, including some 12,000 newly arrived North Korean soldiers. ISW figures reveal that Moscow has reclaimed 593 square kilometres in Kursk since October through a series of counterattacks.

“The whole idea was to maybe gain some political leverage in potential negotiations, but militarily to draw the Russian forces away from the Donbas in order to liberate Kursk. And what we're seeing instead is that Ukrainian units are tied down there,” an analyst commented.

The intensification of the conflict has come at a steep human cost. Analysis by BBC Russia estimates that at least 78,329 Russian troops have been killed since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Losses between September and November this year are reported to be more than one-and-a-half times higher than during the same period in 2023 and fighting in Kursk is reportedly brutal, with high Russian casualties. 

Russian forces are consolidating their battlefield gains while regaining lost ground in their border regions. However, the strategic significance of these advances and their potential impact on any future peace negotiations remain unclear. The Kremlin has said that ceasefire talks cannot begin until it has regain controlled over Kursk and expelled Ukraine’s expeditionary force. 

Ukraine’s public are also becoming tired of the war. A recent Gallup poll shows that half Ukrainians want to see the war end. A majority of respondents also expressed a preference for European or UK mediation over US involvement, particularly under Trump’s leadership.