Solar and wind are set to supply more than 33% of world power by 2030, up from 12% currently.

What? Surging solar, wind and battery capacity out to 2030 is now in line with ambitious net-zero scenarios

Why? Climate policies, the cheap cost of renewables, declining fossil fuel demand and energy security

What next? Barriers such as lack of transmission need to be eased

A new analysis by RMI in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund reveals that surging solar, wind and battery capacity out to 2030 is now in line with ambitious net-zero scenarios.

The forecasts see solar and wind supplying over a third of all power by 2030, up from around 12% currently, while the major cost declines over the past 10 years are expected to continue, with solar and wind roughly halving in price again by 2030.

Complementary research from Systems Change Lab shows eight countries, ranging from Uruguay to Denmark to Namibia, are already proving this is possible, having scaled up solar and wind at rates faster than what’s needed globally to limit global warming to 1.5°C, based on scenarios produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

This exponential growth has put the electricity system at a global “tipping point “ – whereby the transition away from fossil fuels has become hard to reverse, suggesting fossil fuel demand has peaked in the electricity sector and will be in “freefall” by the end of the decade, sad RMI, a green energy non-profit.

The goal of COP28, to be held this autumn in UAE, to triple renewables capacity by 2030 is now within reach – provided further barriers are removed, including grid investment, streamlined permitting, improved market structures, and greater storage.

This exponential growth in renewable electricity is unlocking widespread benefits, including security of supply and jobs growth, as well as countering energy price inflation.

Complementary research from Systems Change Lab shows eight countries have already grown solar and wind generation faster than what’s needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, proving that a rapid transition to renewable energy is possible.

By 2030, RMI forecasts that solar and wind will supply more than a third of all global electricity, up from around 12% today. Based on the forecasts, this would see solar and wind generate 12,000-14,000 TWh by 2030, three to four times higher compared with 2022 levels.

It would also surpass recent calls running up to COP28 for a tripling of total renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Fossil fuel demand in steep decline

Meanwhile, fossil fuel demand for electricity will be in steep decline, according to the RMI analysis, down as much as 30% from the 2022 peak by 2030, as renewable electricity further outcompetes hydrocarbons on cost.

Certain key countries and regions including China and Europe are leading the way in adopting clean energy technology, at an exponential growth rate. However, renewable deployment is also becoming ever more distributed globally, including across the Middle East and Africa, which are rapidly catching up with and harnessing the global growth trend.

Uruguay, Denmark, Lithuania, Namibia, Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan and Chile have all already grown solar and wind generation at rapid speeds, demonstrating that a rapid transition can be achieved across many different contexts, research from Systems Change Lab shows.

Globally, wind and solar need to grow from 12% to 41% by 2030, an increase of 29%. Denmark, Uruguay and Lithuania have already achieved such an increase over a comparable span of eight years. Namibia, the Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan and Chile have grown solar and wind generation at sufficient rates for five years.

These countries scaled-up wind and solar under very different circumstances. They span both developing and developed countries, with a GDP per capita ranging from $4,000 to $67,000 per year. The countries were driven to accelerate renewables by a variety of factors, including adopting smart and effective policies, maintaining political commitment, lowering the costs of renewable power and improving energy security.

“The exponential growth trend in renewable electricity can be harnessed to help developing countries get ahead of the curve and transition faster to a cleaner and more affordable electricity system,” said Andrew Steer, president and CEO of the Bezos Earth Fund.

Exponential rates of deployment are driving down renewable prices at an unprecedented pace, rendering higher-cost hydrocarbons uncompetitive in most markets.

RMI forecasts that what is already the cheapest form of electricity in history will roughly halve in price again by 2030, falling as low as $20/MWh for solar from over $40/MWh currently.

The cost of renewable electricity has plummeted over the past 10 years, overcoming a key barrier to widespread deployment. Solar and battery costs have declined 80% between 2012 and 2022, while offshore wind costs are down 73% and onshore wind costs are 57% lower, according to BloombergNEF data.

“Exponential growth of clean energy is an unstoppable force that will put more spending power in the pockets of consumers,” said Kingsmill Bond, senior principal at RMI. “The benefit of rapid renewable deployment is greater energy security and independence, plus long-term energy price deflation because this is a manufactured technology – the more you install the cheaper it gets.”

Exponential growth

This comes as the Global Stocktake, which delivers the results of a two-year assessment of global efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreements, is expected to highlight a major shortfall in necessary progress to stem the accelerating climate crisis. However, this backward-looking assessment misses the exponential growth of new energy technologies in the largest industries of the fossil fuel system.

Electricity and road transport account for more than half of fossil fuel demand and have reached tipping points in deployment to pave the way for wide-spread adoption, said RMI.

“This is a clear signal to policy makers, businesses and investors to seize the opportunity of accelerating the energy transition. [Tripling renewable] electricity investment and capacity by 2030 [is] deliverable. But only by removing barriers to faster renewable deployment, from streamlining permitting to redirecting subsidies for polluting energy,” said Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a founding partner of Global Optimism.

“Otherwise, the exponential growth we are seeing and the benefits that come with it could be derailed unnecessarily,” she said.