Slovakia’s opposition parties united to file a no-confidence motion against the populist Prime Minister Robert Fico on January 14, Reuters reports. 

“Today the whole opposition united in motion against the government of Robert Fico,” said Michal Šimečka, leader of the largest opposition party, liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) at a press conference opposition parties summoned.  

“There are many differences between us in opinions, style of politics, but when it comes to the defence of democracy and freedom in Slovakia, we know how to cooperate,” he added. 

PS, Christian Democratic KDH, neoliberal SaS and right-wing populist Movement Slovakia have only 71 legislators, five short of a parliamentary majority. 

However, Fico’s ruling left-right coalition has faced internal rows in recent weeks, heralded by strained relations between far-right SNS and more moderate centre-left Hlas parties.

"We will not allow the premier to hijack Slovakia somewhere to Moscow, he has no mandate for that," Šimečka also stated, adding that "at least four legislators of Hlas agree with our stance," which is a clean half of the parliament of 150.   

Last autumn, three legislators elected on the SNS list and led by countryside macho chauvinist Rudolf Huliak left the SNS parliamentary grouping, demanding the Ministry of Environment post for them, but backed Fico’s government budget in December in a key vote.

The ruling coalition was also forced to adopt unpopular austerity measures to address the public finance deficit, and Smer now trails the largest opposition party, liberal Progressive Slovakia though the margin remains thin. According to the December poll by Focus agency, PS (21.5%) is ahead of Smer (20.8%) by less than a percentage point.

Although Fico vowed to do what he can to avert the prospect of early elections, he may still have a better coalition potential than PS, given the surging neofascist non-parliamentary Republika party and Smer's own continued radicalisation. 

As polls indicate Smer’s popularity is weakening, Fico has been increasingly reliant on the anti-establishment electorate, which is traditionally pro-Russian in Slovakia.

“The more unpopular measures to consolidate public finances, Fico will have to make, the more pro-Russian positions he will take up,” senior research fellow at the Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA), Alexander Duleba told bne Intellinews in an interview last month.  

Fico has stepped up his anti-Ukrainian and pro-Kremlin rhetoric in recent weeks, exploiting the long-signalled end of the Russian gas transit the long signalled end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.

Slovakia has been for decades an important transit route for Russian gas into Europe, and Fico has complained the state will lose money from gas transit fees.

Prior to the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Slovak state made some €400mn from the fees through its  Eustream gas transmission utility, where it has a 51% share, while EPH of Czech energy and media oligarch Daniel Křetínský holds 49% and managerial control. 

Analysts argue that it is the loss of this fee income, together with the close links between Křetínský and the government, that largely explain Fico's aggressive rhetoric, including threats to end the country's humanitarian aid to Ukraine, together with the populist premier's reliance on the pro-Kremlin electorate.

In the latest development, reports emerged that Fico is to turn down Volodymyr Zelensky’s invite to visit Kyiv on Friday, which came in response to Fico inviting Zelensky to meet and discuss Russian gas transit in an open letter published on his popular Facebook social media page.

Fico claimed that “such a meeting will create good preconditions for open discussion of gas supplies to Slovakia and to other countries across Ukrainian territory, about possible technical solutions in connection to the ending of the agreement between relevant Ukrainian and Russian company as of December 31.”  

“Ok. Come to Kyiv on Friday,” Zelensky reciprocated on his X (formerly Twitter) account to Fico’s open letter.

During this week's visit to Moscow, Smer’s legislator and former head of Police Tibor Gašpar, who faces criminal investigation over his ties to organized crime groups linked to Smer-linked oligarch and his relative Norbert Bödör, told Russian state media that Fico won’t come to Kyiv.  

Gašpar travelled to Moscow on January 12 along with several other legislators, including SNS leader Andrej Danko and Smer's radical young legislator Richard Glück.