The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for GDP growth, unemployment rate, RUB/$ exchange rate, exports, imports and Brent oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said in its monthly macroeconomic survey professional economists. 

• Inflation: Inflation forecast has been raised to 7.7% in 2024 (+0.4 pp compared to the September survey) and to 5.3% in 2025 (+0.5 pp). Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2026 and remain at this level further on.
• Key rate: Analysts have raised the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon. The median forecast for 2024 is 17.3% per annum (+0.2 pp). It implies that the average key rate in October – December 2024 will amount to 20.0% per annum. Analysts forecast that the key rate will average 18.0% per annum (+1.9 pp) in 2025, 12.5% per annum (+1.0 pp) in 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon (9.0% per annum) is somewhat higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum).
• GDP: Forecast for 2024 has been raised to 3.7% (+0.1 pp). Analysts expect GDP to grow by 1.8-1.9% in 2025-2027. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has remained unchanged at 1.8%. According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +12.2% (+11.6%, according to the September survey).
• Unemployment rate: Analysts have somewhat lowered their forecast for 2024–2026.They expect that unemployment will decline to 2.5% (-0.1 pp) in 2024, increase to 2.7% (-0.1 pp) in 2025, to 2.9% (-0.1 pp) in 2026 and then return to the 2023 level of 3.0% by the end of the forecast horizon.
• Nominal wages: Analysts have once again raised their forecast for nominal wage growth to 17.2% (+1.2 pp) in 2024, followed by a deceleration to 10.4% (+1.4 pp) in 2025, to 7.6% (+0.6 pp) in 2026 and to 6.5% (-0.1 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 8.3% in 2024, by 3.9% in 2025, by 2.8% in 2026 and by 2.3% in 2027. Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 27.9% higher than in 2021 (24.9% higher, according to the September survey).
• Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect higher consolidated budget deficit over the entire forecast horizon compared to the September survey: 1.7% of GDP in 2024, followed by a decline to 1.1% of GDP in 2025 and to 1.0% of GDP in 2026-2027.
• Exports of goods and services: Analysts have barely changed their forecast for 2024-2026: $470bn in 2024, $475bn (-$3bn) in 2025, $485bn (-$1bn) in 2026. The estimate for 2027 is $493bn (-$5bn), which is 10% ($57bn) lower than exports in 2021.
• Imports of goods and services: Forecasts for 2024–2026 have also seen no significant changes: $370bn (+$1bn) in 2024, $382bn (-$3bn) in 2025, $396bn (-$1bn) for 2026. The estimate for the end of the forecast horizon is $403bn (-$6bn), which is 7% ($26bn) higher than imports in 2021.
• RUB/$ exchange rate: Analysts’ forecast for 2024 is RUB91.2 per dollar (it implies that the average exchange rate in October-December 2024 will amount to RUB94.2 per dollar), RUB95.0 per dollar for 2025, RUB97.5 per dollar for 2026 and RUB99.7 per dollar for 2027 (the ruble is 0.6-1.1% weaker compared to the September survey).
• Brent oil price: Analysts have slightly lowered their forecast. According to their expectations, the average Brent oil price will total $81 per barrel in 2024 (it implies that the average price in October-December 2024 will amount to $79 per barrel). The price will then decrease to $77 per barrel in 2025, to $75 per barrel in 2026 and to $72 per barrel in 2027.