Results so far from the referendum on Moldova’s European Union membership indicate a tight balance between those opting in favour and against including the accession process in the country’s constitution. After counting the votes from 2,175 of the 2,219 polling stations, there were 50.11% ‘no’ votes versus 49.89% ‘yes’ votes, according to the country’s central electoral commission.

In the first round of voting in the presidential election, also held on October 20, pro-EU President Maia Sandu was leading with 41.85% of the votes, followed by the Socialist Party’s candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo (26.35%), independent politician Renato Usatii (13.76%) and former governor of Gagauzia Irina Vlah (5.46%). 

The preliminary results reported in the hours after the ballot closed were predominantly against Moldova’s EU membership. This prompted Sandu to say that “criminal groups intended to buy 300,000 votes” in an “unprecedented attack to our democracy”. 

“Criminal groups, backed by foreign forces, have attacked our country with lies and propaganda. We have evidence and information that a criminal group intended to buy 300,000 votes. This is an unprecedented fraud, the purpose of which is to compromise democracy. Their goal is to sow fear and panic in society,” Sandu stated.

Sandu has repeatedly said that EU accession requires broad support from the population.

In the run up to the election, Moldovan officials announced that Russia had channeled $15mn to bribe voters in Moldova in September alone, with estimates Moscow was spending as much as $100mn to influence the outcomes of the two elections. 

However, later results indicated a narrow ‘yes’ vote, as well as putting Sandu ahead of her rivals. The turnout in the referendum exceeded 50%, well above the 33.3% threshold set by the Constitutional Court.

Fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, currently in hiding in Moscow, with the support of Russian authorities, has indeed carried out a broad and complex campaign against Sandu and the pro-EU referendum. But the two candidates informally backed by Shor — Victoria Furtuna and Vasile Tarlev — are not among the first four and they obtained just 4.5% and 3.2% of the votes respectively.

However, another fear is that unrest could follow the elections. Even if the referendum ends with marginal support in favour of Moldova’s EU accession, the tight result could be used to justify opposition protests against the process. 

Separately, political turmoil generated by the tight results in the constitutional referendum may help opposition parties keep their electoral base active for the second round of the presidential elections, where the combined electorates of the opposition candidates may surpass the pro-EU electorate.