At the heart of the Tibetan plateau lies a profound challenge for India’s foreign policy: the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. Already 89 years old, Tenzin Gyatso, the fourteenth Dali Lama and head of the Buddhist Yellow Hat sect, says himself that he is not long for this world and has suggested that he may be the last of his line.

The problem is that when he dies, the race will be on to find a reincarnation to replace him and that China has already said that the fifteenth Dali Lama will be born in China, meaning he will fall under the control of the Chinese government.

There is already a precedent. When the tenth Panchen Lama, Lobsang Trinley Lhündrub Chökyi Gyaltsen, the number two in the Yellow Hat Sect hierarchy, passed away on 28 January 1989 at Tashi Lhunpo Monastery in Tibet, his reincarnation, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, was found a few months later in Lhari County, Nagchu Prefecture in Tibet and recognised by the Dalai Lama as the true Panchen Lama that May. But he and his family were immediately taken into custody by the Chinese authorities and have not been seen in public since. The Chinese government has said that he is living “a normal life” and “does not wish to be disturbed,” but these claims have not been independently verified. As of now, his exact whereabouts and well-being remain unknown, and he has not taken up his role of leading the Yellow Hat sect in Tibet.

The question of succession for the fourteenth Dalai Lama remains vexed. The Dalai Lama, who currently lives in exile in northern India, has said that he may be reincarnated outside Tibet or may not be reincarnated at all. For the Chinese authorities that annexed Tibet in 1959, the current Dalai Lama is a thorn in the side of Beijing as it strives to incorporate Tibet and bring the region, which accounts for a third of all the People’s Republic’s land, under its full control. Bringing the fifteenth Dalai Lama under China’s direct control is a top priority for Beijing. Who will be the new Dali Lama and where he lives is no longer a purely spiritual issue but a pivotal geopolitical matter involving India, China and the wider global order.

Life in exile

The Chinese invaded Tibet in 1959, which was still a closed country at the time and fiercely independent, and quickly took over. The Dalai Lama fled, walking across the Tibetan mountains into India, and set up a government in exile based in Dharamshala, a town in the northern Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, where it remains to this day. The Dalai Lama remains one of the most revered religious leaders in the world and has constantly lobbied for a return of Tibet’s independence. Amongst his many accolades is a Nobel Peace prize for his non-violent struggle for the liberation of Tibet and his advocacy of a peaceful resolution to the Tibetan issue through dialogue.

China insists that the next Dalai Lama must be born within its borders and approved by Beijing, a move Tibetans see as interference in their religious traditions. Observers worry that this scenario could end with two rival and competing Dalai Lamas – one endorsed by Beijing and another by the Tibetan exile community – thereby complicating international diplomacy.

“The reincarnation debate is central to China’s internal stability and its global image,” Vijay Gokhale of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said in a recent paper. “It is not merely about Tibet but reflects Beijing’s concerns over ethno-religious unrest and external interference in its borderlands.”

India has been a strong supporter of the Tibetan government in exile, providing a home for refugees that still walk over the mountains to escape a repressive regime in Tibet. During a trip through Tibet in 1989, this correspondent was told of forced sterilisation of Tibetan women by the Chinese government in interviews with locals in Lhasa and also witnessed first-hand the summary execution of a Tibetan man who attacked a Chinese official with a knife in Shigatse, the second largest city in Tibet and the traditional seat of the Panchen Lama, earlier the same day.

The reincarnation of Tibet’s spiritual leader is not just a theological matter but will be a defining issue for India’s relations with China and its role in the global order. Relations between the two countries have been poor due to a long-standing border dispute. Tensions between the two flared up most recently in 2023 when China issued a new “standard map” that included part of India’s northern territory that was marked as part of China. In a hilarious retort, India’s official cartographers issued their own new map that included all of China, but labelled “India 3.0.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains worried about Chinese aggression and on the agenda during his trip to Moscow this summer to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin was securing the delivery of Russia’s advanced S-400 missile system that he wants to use to secure his borders with both China and Pakistan, which is also in dispute with New Dehli.

However, more recently the two long-standing rivals have tried to bury the hatchet as part of the attempts to build up the BRICS+ group in the face of US aggression and the growing geopolitical tensions. India's Ministry of External Affairs confirmed an agreement with China on disengagement and border patrols along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in October ahead of the latest BRICS summit, hosted by Russia in Kazan.

Gokhale argues that the question of the Dalai Lama’s successor is also intricately tied to India’s domestic politics, its foreign policy and the evolving geopolitical landscape shaped by the escalating Sino-US rivalry.

“The Dalai Lama remains a potent symbol of Tibetan identity and resilience. His death could trigger a geopolitical clash between India and China over the recognition of his successor,” said Gokhale.

If Beijing selects and endorses its own new Dalai Lama within its borders, and dismisses a Tibetan or Indian-born rival that is recognised by the Tibetan government in exile, New Delhi’s knee-jerk reaction will be to back the government in exile’s candidate that will put it in direct conflict with Beijing and result in the start of a long-term legitimacy battle.

“The reincarnation issue is central to China’s internal stability and international ambitions,” Gokhale explains. “For Beijing, controlling the narrative is as important as controlling the territory. This is about demonstrating to the world –and to its own people – that Tibet is firmly integrated into the Chinese state.”

India’s geopolitical conundrum

India is heavily invested in the Tibetan question. For over six decades India has been the spiritual and political haven for the Dalai Lama and his government-in-exile, a policy that has defined New Delhi’s moral stance on the Tibet issue but strained its relations with China.

“India faces a tough choice,” Gokhale observes. “Should it continue to serve as a sanctuary for Tibetan religious and cultural life, or should it tread cautiously to avoid provoking China further?” The presence of a large Tibetan exile community in India – numbering approximately 100,000 – and its historical commitment to supporting Tibetan autonomy have made India a key stakeholder in the reincarnation debate. The international respect the Dalai Lama commands makes it even harder for New Delhi to compromise on the Tibetan issues, as that would also hurt Modi’s growing international stature and India’s reputation as it starts to play a larger role on the international stage. In particular, Modi positioned India as an alternative leader of the Global South during the G20 summit last year with great success and hopes to moderate Beijing and Moscow’s more aggressive stance in their clash with the West – a message that is well received by many in the aspiring Global South countries that don’t want to get drawn into a Russian-led East-West head-on clash.

Complicating matters is the fact that Tibetan Buddhism has deep roots in India, particularly in the Himalayan belt, where Tibetan spiritual traditions are interwoven with local culture. Buddha was born in Lumbini as a prince of the local royal family, which is located in modern-day Nepal and is now a UNESCO World Heritage Site. However, he travelled widely and attained enlightenment under the Bodhi Tree in Bodh Gaya, which is in the present-day northern Indian state of Bihar. The site is marked by the Mahabodhi Temple, another UNESCO World Heritage Site, and is considered one of the most sacred places in Buddhism.

According to the 2011 Census of India, Buddhism is practised by approximately 8.4mn individuals, constituting about 0.7% of the nation's total population. The majority (77%) of Indian Buddhists are concentrated in the state of Maharashtra. Estimates of the proportion of Buddhists within China's population vary significantly due to differing methodologies and definitions of religious affiliation. According to a 2018 survey by the Chinese General Social Survey, approximately 4% of Chinese adults, equating to about 42mn people, formally identify as Buddhist. However, another survey in 2023 study suggests that a third (33.4%) of China's 1.4bn residents, or approximately 470mn individuals, can be identified as Buddhists.

Any perceived concessions to China on this issue could have political repercussions within India, alienating communities that revere the Dalai Lama as a spiritual guide. Due to the high number of Chinese that at least loosely associate themselves with Buddhism, it is a key domestic issue for Beijing as well.

The Sino-US angle

India’s challenges are compounded by the broader geopolitical backdrop of escalating Sino-US tensions. The US has been increasingly vocal in its support for Tibetan autonomy, enacting legislation that directly challenges China’s claims over the reincarnation process. The 2020 Tibetan Policy and Support Act, for instance, explicitly upholds the Tibetan community’s right to select its religious leaders without interference and is another plank in the US campaign to challenge China’s rise. The 2024 Resolve Tibet Act further sharpens this stance by rejecting China’s historical claims over Tibet and urging direct dialogue between Beijing and the Dalai Lama – a law that has only increased Beijing’s desire to take control of the Dalai Lama’s successor.

“Beijing sees the reincarnation debate not just as a domestic issue but as a proxy battleground for its competition with the United States,” Gokhale notes. Beijing not only wants to secure control over the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation for reasons of control over Tibet, but also as it fears the issue will become a proxy for its escalating rivalries with Washington.

Gokhale warns that India cannot afford to approach the reincarnation question with indifference or delay. A clear and balanced policy is crucial to navigating the complex dynamics at play. “India has managed the Dalai Lama’s presence with relative success over the past six decades,” he says. “But the post-Dalai Lama era will demand a new level of strategic foresight and diplomatic agility.”

Among the key policy questions India must address are:

Recognition and Legitimacy: If an alternative Dalai Lama is identified in exile or within Indian territory, how should India respond? Should it extend recognition and allow the successor to reside in India, or maintain ambiguity to avoid antagonising China?

Advocacy for Dialogue: Should India publicly support calls for negotiations between Beijing and Tibetan representatives? Such a stance could align India with international expectations while signalling its principled stand on the Tibetan issue.

Engagement with the Exile Community: How should India manage the Tibetan government-in-exile and the broader exile community during the transition? Gokhale suggests continuing to permit their cultural and educational activities while firmly deterring any violent or provocative actions.

Managing a Domestic Backlash: Tibetan Buddhism has a significant following in India, particularly in the northern states. Controversy over the next Dalai Lama could spark unrest among these communities, necessitating proactive measures to address their concerns.

Handling the Interregnum: The period between the death of the fourteenth Dalai Lama and the identification of his successor could be fraught with uncertainty. India must prepare for potential disputes within the Tibetan exile community and respond to Chinese demands regarding the Dalai Lama’s symbols, such as ritual objects that are used to determine the authenticity of a new Dalai Lama.

 

Walking the tightrope

While Gokhale acknowledges that India’s actions may not fundamentally alter China’s policy on the Dalai Lama, he argues that inaction is not an option. Beijing’s approach to Tibet has always been driven by its domestic imperatives of maintaining political control and stability in the region. However, India’s role as the host of the Dalai Lama and the epicentre of Tibetan religious activity makes it an indispensable actor in the reincarnation debate.

“India should not entertain any illusions that appeasing China on this issue will lead to better bilateral relations,” Gokhale cautions. “If anything, it may embolden Beijing to escalate its demands, including shutting down Tibetan institutions in India.”

Instead, India must strike a balance between its strategic interests and its long-standing commitments to Tibetan autonomy. Gokhale suggests that India consider coordinating with like-minded nations, such as the US and European countries, to counter China’s attempts to monopolise the reincarnation process.

The succession of the Dalai Lama is not just a matter of religious tradition, but it will be a defining moment for the Indo-China relationship. For China, it is a test of its ability to assert control over Tibet in the face of international scrutiny. For India, it is an opportunity to reaffirm its democratic values and strategic independence while managing the risks of confrontation with its most powerful neighbour.

Gokhale concludes: “The reincarnation question embodies the intersection of spirituality, geopolitics and power. How India navigates this challenge will shape its future role as a regional leader and a global influencer.”