Ukraine’s mobilisation efforts to replenish its manpower are failing and increasingly threatening Kyiv’s ability to defend itself against the Russian aggression, leading Russian analysts Peter Korotaev and Volodymyr Ishchenko said in an opinion piece for Al Jazeera on January 23.

“I don’t understand why this war should fully become my war in the truest sense of the word,” said a Ukrainian fundraiser for the military effort, interviewed by the authors, as alienation from the state’s war effort grows.

Growing social, economic and political problems are undermining national unity in its third year of war with Russia and making it increasingly hard for Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) to find fresh recruits.

Despite Western pressure to conscript more young men by dropping the conscription age limit from 25 years to 18 years, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has hesitated, fearing public backlash from a population that is already growing weary with Zelenskiy and the war. Recent polls showed that trust in Zelenskiy has fallen to less than half and another survey found that he would be roundly beaten by former commander-in-chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi in any presidential election.

Ukraine already has the worst demographics in the world, which will severely restrict its post-war recovery, but to send the blossom of its youth to the front line would have catastrophic long-term consequences. Mothers of soldiers that have been serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) with few breaks for the last three years have already held public protests, calling on Bankova to rotate soldiers home or limit military service terms.

A July poll found that only 29% of Ukrainians considered it shameful to avoid the draft, while 27% believed forced mobilisation was necessary to address frontline challenges.

The government passed a new constriction law in April, designed to reduce the exceptions and raise fresh troops, but the initiative has largely failed; lower medical requirements and a more aggressive crackdown on draft dodgers have not yielded the anticipated number of recruits.

Polls from 2024 reveal growing widespread public resistance to constriction: only 10% of respondents said their relatives were ready to mobilise, while 52% opposed the April 2024 conscription law. By mid-July, 4mn men met the mandatory registration requirement but just under three quarters provided medical or similar exemptions; 6mn eligible men had not registered for the draft at all. Evasion is facilitated by widespread corruption. Officials reportedly accept massive bribes for exemptions, with one medical official found hoarding $6mn in cash.

The General Prosecutor this year intends to crack down on draft dodgers and jail those avoiding service. The office has reportedly already opened 500,000 criminal investigations.

The dragnet that has been used to “bus” conscripts – press gangs roaming Ukrainian cities typically grab military-aged men from the street and bundle them into minivans – typically catching poor rural Ukrainians unable to avoid service, while those from the richer larger cities manage to avoid conscription. That has led to an inflow of poor quality soldiers that are undertrained and also fuels the mounting backlash to the government’s constriction policies. It also undermines the sense of patriotism and motivation to fight for Ukraine’s freedom and has resulted in a rapidly growing rate of desertion.

“The people [at the front] were mainly those who could not ‘decide things’ with a bribe,” parliamentarian Mariana Bezuhla remarked after recently visiting the key frontline city of Pokrovsk.

Mobilised troops now outnumber volunteers four to one, the authors report. Conditions at the front are grim, with reports of systemic abuse, poor training and low patriotism. A military commander stated that 90% of conscripts are “forcibly mobilised villagers,” and an officer described most officers’ treatment of recruits as “like animals.” The survival rate of new recruits is far lower than that of the veterans, but at the same time, of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) veterans that have been serving since the start of the conflict in 2014, an esteemed nine out of ten are already dead, according to anecdotal reports from the front line.

The war is exacerbating already deeply entrenched class divisions that existed before the war. Urban elites, including journalists and NGO workers, largely evade conscription while advocating for total victory, the authors report, leading to a criticism of hypocrisy amongst the soldiers. Constant corruption scandals among high-ranking officials further alienate citizens, many of whom perceive the state as prioritising elite interests over national welfare.

Just last week, Anastasia Radina, head of the Ukrainian parliament's anti-corruption committee, called for Defence Minister Rustem Umerov’s resignation, after he fired Maryna Bezrukova, the head of the Defence Procurement Agency (DPA), as yet another defence procurement scandal escalates. Umerov has been lambasted by pro-reform MPs and anti-corruption activists for what they see as his efforts to destroy the independence of the Defence Procurement Agency that is attempting to curb corruption.

Previous Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov was also sacked in September 2023 after his ministry was embroiled in a string of corruption scandals featuring overpriced eggs for the army and poor quality winter coats among other things.

The authors argue that Ukraine’s weak post-Soviet social contract is a key factor undermining morale, which leaves citizens sceptical of the state’s demands. “What has the state ever given me, except a Kalashnikov?” asked one of the authors’ interviewees.

While most Ukrainians favour reclaiming all territories, many are unwilling to make personal sacrifices for this goal. The population appears increasingly united by fear – fear of invasion, conscription or repression – rather than shared aspirations, raising questions about long-term cohesion.

“This is my country, but this is not my state,” said a Ukrainian man who remained in the shelling-shocked city of Kharkiv in the far eastern region of Ukraine close to the Russian border. He stayed in this home town to help his neighbours but has refused to serve in the military.