Croatians head to the polls on December 29 in a presidential election dominated by rivalry between incumbent Zoran Milanovic, known for his populist rhetoric and criticism of Western military support for Ukraine, and the ruling party’s candidate Dragan Primorac.

While the presidency in Croatia is largely ceremonial, it carries significant political influence. The election will serve as a referendum on Milanovic’s combative leadership style and Croatia’s alignment with Western policies, particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Milanovic, a former prime minister and leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP), is a polarising figure, who is nonetheless considered Croatia’s most popular politician. 

Opinion polls suggest he is the frontrunner, although he is unlikely to win outright in the first round. If no candidate secures over 50% of the vote, a runoff is set for January 12.

Polarising candidate

Since his election in 2020, Milanovic has often sparked controversy with his sharp attacks on political rivals and EU officials. During his presidency, he has adopted increasingly populist positions, particularly on Croatia’s role in Nato and support for Ukraine. 

Critics accuse him of undermining Croatia’s credibility within the EU and Nato. Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, of the ruling centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), has labeled him “pro-Russian” and a threat to Croatia’s international standing.

The ongoing disagreement over Zagreb’s position on the war in Ukraine has repeatedly came to a head this autumn, with public spats erupting over Croatia’s involvement in a Nato training mission in Ukraine. 

In October, Plenkovic accused Milanovic of an "attempted coup" following a decision by the president to block General Tihomir Kundid, the chief of the general staff, from attending a parliamentary Defence Committee meeting.  Milanovic, who serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, refused to allow Kundid to brief lawmakers on the mission. 

Earlier in 2024, he announced plans to run for the prime minister position, which holds more powers than the largely ceremonial presidency, but was blocked from doing so by the the Constitutional Court. 

Primorac, a paediatrician and university professor endorsed by the HDZ, has positioned himself as a unifier, contrasting with Milanovic’s divisive style. “Croatia’s place is in the West, not the East,” he said during the campaign, stressing his support for the country’s EU and Nato commitments.

Primorac’s campaign has, however, been overshadowed by a corruption scandal involving the health minister from the HDZ, who was arrested recently on bribery charges and subsequently sacked. The scandal left Plenkovic’s government struggling to restore confidence in the healthcare system.

The HDZ-led government has also come under pressure from public sector workers, who have pushed for pay rises in the weeks ahead of the election. A deal was reached on an increase in the base pay for state and public services on December 27. 

Eight candidates in total have been registered for the presidential race. Aside from the candidates backed by Croatia’s two main parties, Marija Selak Raspudic, a conservative independent, ranks third in the polls. Formerly associated with the rightwing Most party, she has focused on economic reform and corruption. Another prominent candidate is Ivana Kekin of the left-green Mozemo party. 

Economic challenges

The election comes at a time of robust economic growth but persistent challenges. Croatia’s GDP rose by 3.9% in the third quarter of 2024, driven by strong household consumption and EU-backed investments, making it one of the fastest growing EU economies. 

Forecasts from international financial institutions (IFIs) are for growth in the range of 3.5-3.6% in 2024, moderating somewhat to 3-3.3% in 2025, as wage and consumption growth slow. 

Plenkovic has highlighted Croatia’s economic progress, including a near doubling of GDP since 2016 and a record-low unemployment rate of 5.1% projected for 2024. The country also joined the group of a few dozen countries with triple-A ratings from all three major international rating agencies following its upgrade by Moody’s in November. 

Still, rising public spending has widened the government deficit to 2.1% of GDP. Inflation and labour shortages remain concerns for the country’s 1.6mn voters.