When Donald Trump threatened to “destroy the Turkish economy” during his first presidential term, it was a sobering reminder to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that one authoritarian can wield a far bigger stick than another authoritarian.

No surprise then that Erdogan on November 6 did not hang about when it came to sending Trump his congratulations as it became clear that the US electorate, despite everything, was sending him back to the White House.

“I congratulate my friend Donald Trump, who won the presidential election in the United States after a great struggle and was re-elected as the President of the United States,” he wrote on X social media.

Erdogan expressed his hope that with Trump once again US president, “Türkiye-U.S. relations will strengthen, and regional and global crises and wars, especially the Palestinian issue and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end.”

And he effused: “I believe that more efforts will be made for a more just world. I hope that the [US] elections will be beneficial for our friendly and allied people in the United States and for all of humanity”.

Whether Trump is planning much that will benefit “all of humanity” is of course very much open to question, but Erdogan—who has never been invited to the White House under the Joe Biden presidency, with Biden having made plain his distaste for the Erdogan regime, stating plainly in an interview in December 2019 that Turkey’s leader is an “autocrat”—will no doubt be devising approaches to Trump hoping to secure paths forward for at least some select parts of Turkish humanity.

Word in Ankara

The word in Ankara last week was that the Erdogan administration could not decide if its interests would be best served by a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency. Observers said they believed Erdogan was awaiting the election result in the United States before making his own policy decisions, even over his cabinet staffing.

Reflecting on the Erdogan-Trump bitter-sweet relationship that existed during Donald Trump’s 2017-2020 presidency, Erdogan administration insiders complained to Middle East Eye (MEE) last week that Trump would often make promises and deals “that wouldn’t result in any progress or follow-up”.

The publication added: “Apart from big promises and attention-seeking statements, little to nothing was achieved [by Erdogan and Trump] together during the first Trump term, they [the insiders] say”.

Trump’s threat to destroy the Turkish economy came in an infamous letter that he sent to Erdogan in October 2019 when Turkish armed forces were set to make an incursion into northern Syria to take on Kurdish militants who allied with the US in its battle against Islamic State.

Wrote Trump: "Let's work out a good deal! You don't want to be responsible for slaughtering thousands of people, and I don't want to be responsible for destroying the Turkish economy—and I will.”

Erdogan reportedly threw the letter in the bin and launched his cross-border operation the same day.

Tensions never far away

When Erdogan visited the Trump White House, he and his counterpart appeared the best of pals, but tensions in Turkey-US relations were never far away.

In July 2018, Trump sent the Turkish lira into a tailspin when he warned he would slap “large sanctions” on Turkey unless Ankara freed Andrew Brunson, an American pastor on trial on terrorism charges linked to shadowy networks in turn linked to the July 2016 attempted coup against Erdogan. Brunson’s release was soon granted.

Erdogan also irked the Trump administration with its acquisition of S-400 advanced missile defence systems from the Kremlin, but as it turned out Trump only went ahead with sanctions against Ankara over the Syria and S-400 spats quite near the end of the presidency. The first sanctions were “sanctions-lite” and the next set were nothing too much to worry about.

Of course, amid the rows over the S-400s, Nato member Turkey lost its right to acquire the world’s most advanced fighter jet, the F-35, something that still rankles with Erdogan.

The Turkey watcher can now wonder if, given Trump’s threats to break up Nato, his fondness for Vladimir Putin, his love of selling super-expensive military gear and the fact he may no longer be constrained by national security officials cautious at every step, the F-35 deal might be back on.

A win for Erdogan perhaps but then there are multiple other imponderables—can Trump, for instance, stay top buddies with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu and on good terms with Erdogan at the same time, bearing in mind Netanyahu and Erdogan have a deep enmity that has grown increasingly bitter and poisonous amid the Gaza crisis—in Trump-Turkey relations and, as everybody is just about clueless as to what the president-elect will do when he once more snugs down in the Oval Office, now is perhaps not the time to pour on the heavy analysis.