A fortnight into the New Year, over six weeks since nightly pro-EU street protests broke out in Georgia, thousands across the country are continuing to fight back against a contested government determined to stamp out the ongoing wave of demonstrations.

For many Georgians the stakes are existential, with their country’s future as both a democracy and a progressive European nation on the line.

The key demand from demonstrators on the streets remains the same: a new round of parliamentary elections, following allegations from observers, opposition parties, the country’s former president and much of civil society that the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party rigged the October 2024 general election in which it took 54% of the vote, and formed an illegitimate government.

The political crisis and wave of civil unrest which ensued following the contested election result and the pro-Western opposition’s subsequent boycott of parliament intensified after GD’s announcement on November 28 that Georgia would be suspending its EU accession bid until 2028, a huge blow to the 80% in the Black Sea country who see their country’s future as aligned with Europe and fear a return to Moscow’s sphere of influence under the Russia-friendly GD party.

That same evening tens of thousands came out spontaneously across Georgia to defend their European future and were met by riot police armed with batons, water cannons and tear gas. Nightly clashes and hundreds of violent arrests followed, though the crowds only grew as calls mounted for new elections and the release of detainees, drawing the attention of international leaders.

Protest spirit lives on 

A noticeable dip in the numbers gathering every night outside parliament on Tbilisi’s Rustaveli Avenue – the main site of protest in the Georgian capital – and fewer “adrenaline rushes”, as observed by one young protester, over the festive New Year period “does not mean the spirit of the protest has died”, the prominent Georgian journalist and analyst, Anna Gvarishvili, told bne IntelliNews, explaining that in cases of “long, marathon-like protests”, like that which Georgia is currently experiencing, “it’s only natural there will be peaks and lows”.

“When you’re in a long battle, there will be days when you feel full of hope, and other days when you may feel more sceptical about the process,” said Gvarishvili. “What matters is that people keep fighting, even when their spirits and hopes are low,” she continued.

“The anger isn’t going anywhere – it’s only growing,” the journalist added, highlighting that “consistency” and sustained engagement trump size in the context of this resistance movement, and pointing out how “Georgians haven’t missed a single day of protesting since November 28”.

“The regime was banking on the fact that protests would die by New Year’s, and it would be harder to restart them in January,” Marika Mikiashvili, foreign secretary of pro-Western opposition party Droa, told bne IntelliNews. “The fact that the process kept going every night over the holiday season – in general a three-week long eating and drinking fest in Georgia – is quite an achievement.”

“Huge public dissatisfaction doesn’t just disappear,” civil activist Gocha Gogsadze told bne IntelliNews under the twinkling festive stars that have covered Rustaveli since mid-December in juxtaposition to the defiant anger on the pavement below.

“The tens of thousands of who stood here don’t disappear either,” Gogsadze added, gesturing around at the scattered crowds on the wide avenue, a “pretty good” turnout for the 44th consecutive night, the activist thought.

Nightly protests  

Whilst crowds may not be 200,000 per night, as they were in the days following GD’s EU u-turn, Mikiashvili highlighted how the several thousand filling Rustaveli every January evening are not always the same people, signalling that many in Georgia’s capital remain engaged in the resistance movement.

“These protests have started and won’t stop, you can see the determination in people’s eyes – they are ready to fight until they win because the sovereignty of their country and their future are at stake,” 19-year-old Gogsadze continued, shouting over drums, whistles, and chanting – the soundtrack to Rustaveli Avenue after dark.

The activist highlighted the dynamism and fluidity of Georgia’s resistance movement as its greatest strengths, explaining that any “trigger” could return the current protest embers to a full blaze of public anger.

“People here have power, and they know it”, he said, “if these mad motherf*ckers try doing other bad things, these streets will be crowded again like they were, and when we stand here it is a huge threat to security and to them [GD]”.

New trigger

After days of broadly peaceful protests, the weekend of January 10, 11 and 12 was marked by GD resuming hostilities both in courtrooms and on the streets, prompting protesters to regroup, refocus and react once again.

“Now, as we can see, after a brief calm period, the regime has intensified its repressive apparatus. I don’t know what their plan was, but they’ve actually reignited the protests with renewed energy,” Gvarishvili told bne IntelliNews.

Reminiscent of the violent crackdowns on Tbilisi demonstrators in December, police over the weekend appeared easily provoked, making arrests with little to no basis.

Detainments included those of the editor in chief of the Batumelebi and Netgazeti media platforms, Mzia Amaglobeli, on 11 January, after she put up a sticker sharing details of an upcoming strike in Batumi, and of disability rights activist, Gia Jvarsheishvili, who was tackled to the ground by several police officers on Rustaveli on January 10 and has since been hospitalised.

At least nine arrests were made on January 12 after angry demonstrators gathered outside a Tbilisi restaurant where judges responsible for the cases of those detained at pro-EU protests were holding their New Year party. Several high profile opposition leaders were detained on the same day in Batumi after arguing with police officers as to why they had arrested citizens for putting up stickers.

“When you lose confidence in your safety and security you become disorientated and very disorganised,” Gogsadze, who alongside his activism studies psychology at Ilia State University, told bne IntelliNews in an analysis of recent behaviour by law enforcement.

In response to continued pressure from abroad, Georgian Dream recently took its antagonism international in its branding of Western countries that have sanctioned party officials as the pawns of “deep state” networks acting under the instruction of a so-called “Global War Party” set on instigating conflict in Georgia.

Lighting up a cigarette on Rustaveli, 19-year-old Gogsadze calmly explained this type of rhetoric as “a self-defence mechanism [GD is using] to validate themselves, create an illusion of safety and security for their supporters and assure them that they are winning the fight against Georgia's enemies”. “It’s pure propaganda,” the activist told bne IntelliNews.

If the weekend is anything to go by, Georgians’ answer to a resurgence in GD repression is heightened defiance, engagement and focus.

“The mood has been made even angrier,” observed Mikiashvili. “Not that the mood was relaxed or unfocused before because we understand we need to get rid of them [GD] and there is no way back, but there was a little bit of a ‘what’s next?’ issue,” she admitted.

A weekend of multi-city mobilisation against the illegal detention of peaceful protesters, the successful and quite spectacular disruption of the New Year do organised by the so-called ‘judicial clan’, and a packed Rustaveli Avenue three nights running despite other protest hotspots seems to have answered any question of what’s next.

Moving forward, as bne IntelliNews reported last week, Georgia’s first attempt at a nationwide strike, organised by the NGO Protest 24, will take place on January 15. Whilst Gogsadze admitted he doesn’t know what to expect, he said the three-hour walkout, like the street protests, will be “a message to the regime to hold new elections and release political prisoners”.

“Strikes are so new for Georgia so I don’t know how successful it will be from the initial day,” Mikiashvili said, though he did add that renewed hostile measures by the authorities were sure to boost participation levels.

The next few days could be critical, as GD looks set on upping the level of police repression and protesters gear up for a renewed wave of high intensity, engaged resistance.

Could GD fall?

“I truly believe that peaceful, non-violent, and consistent protests have the power to crumble the regime,” Gvarishvili told bne IntelliNews, adding that a combination of “discipline” from protesters and support from Georgia’s Western allies will result in “the regime ultimately having to declare defeat”.

Gogsadze too highlighted the “crucial” need for further international sanctions and democratic leaders “delegitimising every aspect of the so-called government to disintegrate the party from the inside”.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire GD founder and Georgia’s de facto ruler, has already been sanctioned by the US, accused of undermining his country’s democratic institutions and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. A number of ruling party members, judges, government officials and law enforcement officers have also been places under sanctions by a number of western nations including Ukraine, the UK and the Baltic States.

“Each day of this political crisis is a punch in the face for GD,” Gogsadze said, “I think regime collapse is inevitable … it’s not a question of if but when.”

Yet the activist feels Europe needs to “wake up” to Georgia’s existential struggle against Russian imperialist influence, one that he stresses is intertwined not only with Ukraine’s but with the fate of “Armenia, and the security of the Black Sea and entire south Caucasus”.

“Every human being here is a symbol of freedom, democracy, of European integration, of sovereignty,” Gogsadze said, gesturing to the crowds gathered under the stars on Rustaveli, “the West needs to stand with us.”

What next?

Citing the impacts of sanctions, the government’s illegitimacy, rising prices, the recent devaluation of the lari, reduced investments, and a drop in tourism since the protests began last autumn, Gogsadze guesses that an economic crisis in Georgia may be just round the corner. The activist pointed to this as the “final trigger” which he believes would cause a nationwide surge in protests and push those “inside the regime”, namely police and politicians, to defect.

“The situation is highly volatile. Whether it evolves into an economic crisis depends entirely on Western sanctions,” Beso Namchavadze, an economic analyst at Transparency International Georgia told JamNews in late December last year.

Georgia’s pro-Western opposition figures agree with Gvarishvili and Gogsadze that the only way Georgian Dream could be forced to concede and call new elections is through increased domestic and international pressure, resulting in the party’s total isolation and eventual collapse.

In comments published by national outlet Civil.ge on January 11, Zurab Japaridze of the Coalition for Change stressed the importance of a multi-faceted approach. Internally, the politically called for the continuation of street protests across the country, coupled with a stringent “regime non-recognition policy” to be applied to GD’s parliament, government and newly elected President Mikheil Kavelashvili. Externally, Japaridze cited sanctions of various types and the support of the international community to strengthen the non-recognition policy, including a “complete cessation of business as usual with high-level representatives of GD”.  

Opposition leaders have very much taken a back seat in the ongoing resistance movement, after failing to effectively mobilise the public following the contested October 2024 elections.

When asked if he thinks opposition politicians should attempt to retake charge of the resistance movement, Gogsadze told bne IntelliNews that it wouldn’t be right for the “old faces” to now start “standing on a stage and dictating what we should do”. “Power is in people, not in politicians, and I am sure through this protest movement the new leaders of Georgia will emerge naturally,” the activist said, stressing that the “moral obligation” that brings protesters out each night surpasses any political loyalties.

His comment on the need for new blood in Georgian politics echoes recent sentiments by the country’s former president and outspoken GD critic, Salome Zourabichvili, who has recently called for the creation of new political parties in preparation for potential new elections.

The former head of state, who declared herself Georgia’s sole legitimate ruler following GD’s inauguration of ex-footballer Kavelashvili as the country’s sixth president, has encouraged citizens dissatisfied with existing political parties to take initiative and form new ones.

Speaking in the north-western city of Zugdidi on 11 January during a tour of Georgia’s regions, Zourabichvili told listeners that “there should be no more talk before the next elections: ‘I don’t like this party; I don’t like that party.’ If you don’t like it, form your own! Your turn has come!” she declared.