Kazakhstan’s newly appointed Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov, in comments made to Reuters on April 24, signalled that Kazakhstan may not adhere to the OPEC+ group’s agreed output restrictions, as the country is set on prioritising its own national interests over those of OPEC+ when deciding on oil output levels.

"We will try to adjust our actions. If our partners ... are not satisfied with the adjustment of our actions, then again we will act in accordance with national interests with all the ensuing consequences," Akkenzhenov told the news service.

"This is a broad formulation, but it completely covers the entire situation that we have now. Act only in accordance with national interests," he added.

Akkenzhenov also appeared to suggest that Kazakhstan has no sway over the majority of its output, which comes from the country's three largest oil fields, Kashagan, Karachaganak and Tengiz. The output from the trio of fields accounts for 70% of total Kazakh oil production and the fields are operated by Western oil majors.

"We don't control these processes there. Because our international colleagues make the decisions," the minister was cited as saying.

Reuters energy columnist Ron Bousso wrote in a commentary on the same day as that the energy minister made his remarks that Kazakhstan’s approach to oil output as described by Akkezhenov may set the stage for possible non-compliance or even a de facto exit from the coalition by the Central Asian country.

Kazakhstan’s crude oil output surged to 1.85mn barrels per day (bpd) in March, up from an average of 1.74mn bpd in 2024 and well above its OPEC+ quota of 1.468mn bpd. The rise follows the launch of expanded production capacity at the Tengiz field earlier this year. According to OPEC figures, this makes Kazakhstan one of the alliance’s most significant overproducers.

Earlier this month, in a warning to non-compliant producers, OPEC+ announced an unexpected acceleration of plans to increase production by 411,000 bpd in May and Saudi Arabia reduced its official selling prices to Asian markets to the lowest levels in four months. The move was widely interpreted as an attempt to reinforce discipline and pre-empt any coordinated breach of quotas.

A previously proposed compensation framework would have required Kazakhstan and Iraq to implement substantial reductions in output to offset previous overproduction. Akkenzhenov’s remarks suggest Astana does not intend to adhere to those provisions.

Bousso argued in his commentary that the development risks a chain reaction among other members, potentially weakening the cohesion of OPEC+ and triggering a race to increase output. Such a scenario could destabilise oil prices, especially if combined with growing production in non-OPEC+ countries such as the US and Brazil, he wrote. This could return matters to the price competition reminiscent of the 2014 Saudi-led price war, which forced higher-cost producers out of the market.