Waiting for Trump. Both sides in the conflict are waiting for the start of the Trump presidency (January 20th) and to see whether he will engage quickly to try and force an end to the fighting and the start of a peace process – as he previously promised. However, the consensus view is that he will engage more cautiously, and the end of fighting may take place “within a few months” using the pathway set out in the Kellogg plan.

Moscow indicates readiness for engagement. President-elect Trump said he wants an early meeting with Putin to start the process. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that while there have been no requests from Trump's team for a meeting, the Russian leader has repeatedly spoken about his readiness for dialogue. It is widely expected that a meeting will take place “within weeks”.

Waltz restates Trump’s readiness for early talks. President-elect Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz gave an interview at the weekend where he stated that Trump expects an early phone call, to be followed by a meeting, with Putin. He also restated elements of the Kellogg plan, including the planned use of threats and incentives to force both sides to the peace table.

Biden’s poison chalice or soft ball? The latest sanctions from the Biden Administration – potentially severely targeting the oil sector and export revenues – may offer Trump a soft option of a quick reversal or, if any such move requires Congressional approval, may tie-his hands and limit his incentive options. The critical question is whether these sanctions fall under the 2017 CAATSA legislation – as the White House says – or not.

Oil and gas revenues rose 26% in 2024. Despite the tightening of sanctions, Russia’s oil and gas revenues grew 26% y/y in 2024 to $108bn. This is according to Customs and Finance Ministry data.

The EC is planning a 16th package. The EC, now under Poland’s presidency, is starting consultations about the next major sanctions package which Poland wants to introduce to mark the third anniversary of the conflict.

$4bn from frozen Russian assets sent to Ukraine. Ukraine’s Prime Minister stated that Ukraine received $1bn from the US, secured by income from frozen Russian assets. On January 19th, the EC confirmed it sent EUR3bn. Russian officials have not yet responded but, previously, the finance minister said that any moves by the West would be matched dollar-for-dollar, probably taking money from the “I” or “C” accounts.

The Iranian President will visit Moscow this week. President Pezeshkian will visit Moscow on Friday (17th). A broad-based strategic cooperation agreement is expected to be signed, including a major gas supply deal.

China Track settlement system. Chinese and Russian banks announced a so-called China Track settlement system to facilitate cross-border payments between counterparties in both countries. This has been agreed at the “highest political level” according to officials.  If successful, Moscow will try to replicate this elsewhere.

Review of dividend payments to unfriendly states. The Government has amended the process for granting approvals for loan and dividend payments to companies from ‘unfriendly countries.’ Further details are expected in late January or early February according to officials.

New commission on support measures. President Putin has approved a new commission that will examine measures to support the most important projects and systemically important companies.

The labour shortage may increase to 2mn people by 2030. The labour shortage currently stands at about 1.5mn, and according to forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development, it could increase to 2mn by 2030. The need to start dealing with this is growing and will be part of the thinking about ending the conflict.

The government wants to use the stock market more. The Finance Minister stated that the stock market should become a key instrument for financing the economy. He indicated that the state will accelerate privatizations and use other methods to raise money from investors.

Rosneft is allowed greater flexibility with shares. President Putin issued an order authorizing Rosneft to expand options for transactions with its shares. There are, so far, no indications of why this has happened now – but it has generated a lot of speculation about what it may mean and what to expect.

Europe imports a record volume of Russian LNG in 2024. Imports of Russian LNG to the EU in 2024 reached a record high of 24.2bn cubic meters or 12% more than in 2023.

Bill to protect the Russian language from Anglicization. The Chairman of the Duma instructed the relevant Committee on Culture to prepare a bill on the protection of the Russian language. The initiative proposes to significantly limit the use of Anglicisms and foreign words, especially in the public space.

Christopher Weafer is CEO of Macro-Advisory, a Eurasia based strategic consultancy.