At the end of 2020, Russia had approximately 143.8mn citizens (not including the Crimean Peninsula) after the population decreased by 0.4%, which is slightly faster than in previous years, reports Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) in its weekly round-up.

The decline in the population was mainly due to a sharp increase in mortality as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, but the birth rate also continued to decline. Net immigration was positive, but significantly lower than in previous years.

“In Russia, about 2.1mn people died last year. Mortality increased by 320,000 people, or 18% year on year, many times higher than ever before in the 21st century,” BOFIT said.

Mortality increased the most in the North Caucasus regions and especially in Chechnya (45%). Growth in mortality was also strong in Western Siberia in Russia's main oil and gas production areas in Yamal-Nenets and Khanty-Mansiysk (almost 30%) and in Moscow and St. Petersburg (23%). In many regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East, mortality growth was more moderate than in the rest of Russia. 

According to official statistics from the Russian Ministry of Health, about 93,000 people have died of the coronavirus in Russia so far.

About 1.4mn children were born last year, but birth rates fell by 3%, slightly slower than in previous years. However, Russia's goal has been to turn the birth rate into growth so that the contraction in the labour force can be curbed in the future. 

The gradual increase in the retirement age, which began in 2019, will enlarge the working-age population slightly in the next few years, but in the longer term, the working-age population is expected to decline again. 

Raising the retirement age will curb the growth of central government pension expenditure, but its effect on raising the labour force may be limited, as in recent years about 30% of pensioners under the age of 73 have already worked in other ways. For some retirees, however, vacancies may not even be suitable.

Immigrants – especially migrant workers from Central Asia – have long been a significant addition to the Russian workforce. Due to the corona pandemic, some migrant workers lost their jobs last spring and travelled to their home countries. However, as the labour market situation improved, they were unable to return to Russia due to travel restrictions imposed to curb the pandemic. 

Last year, the number of immigrants coming to Russia decreased and the number leaving clearly rose. The net immigration flow was still positive, but almost 200,000 people, or 60% lower than in the previous year. The decline in migrant workers has even led to labour shortages in certain industries and regions.