President Andrzej Duda escalated political tensions in Poland on January 23 by pardoning Mariusz Kaminski and Maciej Wasik, two former MPs from the ex-ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The pardon will intensify the political strife between the PiS camp and the new government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. PiS contends that the conviction and subsequent arrest of Kaminski and Wasik, both former ministers, was illegal from the outset and they maintain their positions as incumbent MPs.

Following his takeover at the helm of the government in December, Tusk set out to "restore rule of law" in Poland after eight years of PiS government, which, Tusk says, left the country's judiciary institutions crippled. 

The PM faces an uphill struggle against Duda, whose second — and last — terms ends only in mid-2025. The government also lacks votes in the parliament to override a presidential veto, which Duda hinted he would wield without hesitation.

PiS billed the ex-MPs' conviction and their subsequent arrest as harbingers of nascent antidemocratic tendencies under Tusk.

Kamiński and Wąsik have been in prison since January 11 after being convicted in December — after the Tusk government took over — of abuse of power in a case dating back to 2007 when the two led the CBA, Poland’s anti-corruption force.

PiS has turned the imprisoned MPs—stripped of their parliamentary mandates following their conviction—into figures around which the party rallied their supporters against what Kaminski called "Tusk’s despicable regime". 

Flanked by the wives of the ex-MPs, Duda stated that Kaminski and Wasik were heroes in the anti-corruption fight, a sentiment that "some do not appreciate to this day".

"The decision regarding the pardon has been issued. The gentlemen are now pardoned," Duda said.

Kaminski and Wasik were initially convicted in early 2015. A pardon by Duda followed later that year amidst controversies that it was invalid because the case was pending appeal at the time.

The pardon was issued after Kaminski and Wasik became MPs for PiS, a government party until October last year when it was ousted by the four-party coalition now in power. Poland's Supreme Court and the PiS-controlled Constitutional Tribunal issued conflicting opinions about the pardon in the meantime. 

Earlier this month, Duda had initiated a different type of pardon procedure, which Prosecutor General Adam Bondar, who is also the new justice minister under Tusk, did not comply with.

In response on January 23, Duda stated that he pardoned Kamiński and Wąsik using his discretionary power as president. "I am calling for their immediate release now," Duda said.

Kaminski and Wasik left their respective prisons on the evening of January 23. In both locations, Radom and Przytuly Stare, crowds of supporters - including top PiS officials - waited outside to greet them.

The pardon does not imply that Kamiński and Wąsik can resume their parliamentary duties, as their conviction remains valid. PiS is, however, almost certain to attempt to force the pair's re-entry into parliament for the upcoming session scheduled on January 25-26.

That will set off a new political fight between PiS and the government, going straight into the heart of the rule of law fight that will determine Polish politics until the 2025 presidential election at least.

The Tusk government is about to meet fierce resistance from Duda, PiS, the Constitutional Tribunal, and one of the chambers of the Supreme Court - the latter two engineered by PiS to make them the government’s political tools - over rolling back the previous administration’s judiciary reforms.

Experts fear that this will create a legal duality in which PiS will pick to adhere only to those legal developments that their institutions will carry out.

PM Tusk said earlier this month that he will not let that happen but his way forward risks deepening chaos that PiS will, in turn, use to stoke tension and weaken support for the government as allegedly undemocratic.

The first standoff will likely be the attempt by PiS to have Kaminski and Wasik take part in this week’s parliamentary session. Another - albeit it is more speculation than a plan, it seems - could come from Duda again, who has been speculated to mull sending the government’s budget bill for a review in the Constitutional Tribunal. The president cannot veto a budget bill directly in Poland. 

In theory, the Tribunal’s rendering the budget bill, or parts of it, unconstitutional could give Duda grounds to cut short the parliamentary term and kick-start an unprecedented political crisis, as no Polish government has ever had a budget bill rejected on constitutional grounds.

This story has been updated.