Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk locked horns with President Andrzej Duda once again on January 15 in what is set to be the defining pattern of Polish politics this year. 

The series of disputes between Poland's top two political leaders centre on Tusk’s attempts to restore the rule of law in Poland, which the previous government of Law and Justice (PiS) – of which Duda is a staunch ally – compromised with a series of legally dubious judicial reforms that led the European Union to suspend European aid.

The problem for Tusk is that restoring the rule of law requires the removal of PiS placemen in key positions, who were often appointed in a judicially improper way, but whose removal will also require judicially dubious methods, given the veto power wielded by Duda.

Duda and PiS thus accuse the Tusk government of the same indiscriminate use of judicial changes for political gain that Tusk accuse PiS and its president of in their governments between 2015-2023. PiS itself conducted a huge purge when it took over in 2015 and then built up a new system dominated by its own appointees that is now proving very difficult to dislodge.

The disputes threaten to throw Poland into judicial chaos by casting doubt on the power of judges and other officials appointed under each government, and their decisions.

The conflict reached a new high on January 15 after Tusk met Duda in the latter’s office, apparently to discuss the prime minister’s forthcoming trip to Kyiv.

But the meeting’s agenda was overshadowed by last week’s decision by Tusk’s Justice Minister and Prosecutor General Adam Bodnar to nominate a new acting head of the national prosecutor’s office. On the same day as the Tusk-Duda meeting, Poland's Constitutional Tribunal said the changes in the national prosecutor’s office were invalid.

Bodnar argues that the nomination of Jacek Bilewicz was an important step in rolling back PiS-made changes in the national prosecutor’s office that – he said, backed by several analyses from Poland’s constitutional law heavyweights – were carried out illegally. 

But Duda and the PiS camp – which also includes many prosecutors nominated by PiS, often in a legally controversial manner – say the exact opposite: that it is Bodnar who is acting illegally and whose actions will have long-lasting repercussions, including undermining any judiciary decisions that Bodnar’s nominee will have played a role in.

That, in turn, is what the Tusk government has long accused PiS of: that any illegal changes to the country’s judiciary will eventually result in court cases collapsing and judgments being reviewed.

Tusk said earlier this month that what his government is undertaking in terms of restoring the rule of law “will not be pretty”. He referred to PiS’ digging in their heels to resist changes.

“Politics cannot be about finding a compromise between lies and truth, lawlessness and law. There’s no room for negotiations here — we cannot adhere to law only a bit or to the constitution only a bit,” Tusk told a press conference. 

In his statement, broadcast before Tusk’s, Duda described Bondar’s decision as legally void and “pathetic”.

The president added that he “appealed to the prime minister to restore the situation in accordance with the law. Not only with the law but also with the constitution.”

Tusk warned the president that opposing changes risks the creation of a dual legal system in Poland. “There is no way that it can happen,” Tusk said.

Duda can veto many government decisions, because the incoming coalition does not have the 60% majority to overturn the presidential veto.

Duda can also refer many cases to Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal – a formally independent body, which PiS engineered to become the party’s political tool. If he wished, Duda could obstruct every step of the new government until he steps down after the next presidential election in summer 2025. 

Tusk and Duda are also deeply at odds over the fate of two former PiS MPs, Mariusz Kaminski and Maciej Wasik, who were arrested earlier in January following their December conviction for abuse of power while leading the CBA, Poland’s anti-corruption force. The two have been in prison for nearly a week now. 

Duda once again demanded Kaminski and Wasik be released for the duration of a pardon procedure he had asked Bodnar to initiate in what the government says was a political stunt to blame it for keeping the ex-MPs behind bars.

President opted for a longer procedure while he could have simply issued a direct pardon, the government says.

Duda and the PiS camp also say that the pair are still incumbent MPs because their conviction was illegal in the light of Duda’s act of pardoning them back in 2015.

PiS has rallied around the imprisoned MPs. The PiS caucus obstructed the beginning of a parliamentary sitting on January 16 by chanting "Free MPs!" for several minutes, as the wives of the jailed lawmakers looked on from the gallery.