Russia has warned Armenia and Azerbaijan against hastily finalising a peace agreement without considering “realities on the ground”, as the countries seem to be rushing into finally ending their more than 30-year conflict, from which Moscow has benefited. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cautioned on November 5 that a premature peace deal, which Western allies are advocating, risks reigniting regional tensions rather than establishing stability.

This warning from Moscow contrasts sharply with statements from Washington, which has supported recent moves by Yerevan and Baku to formalise procedures for border delimitation – a significant step toward a comprehensive peace settlement. On October 31, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller publicly commended both Armenia and Azerbaijan for their “sustained dialogue,” which he described as a promising path toward a stable and “dignified peace” for the region. Miller's remarks followed the ratification of a bilateral agreement on border commission procedures, signed in late August.

Lavrov criticised the push from “pseudo-mediators” in the West to expedite a peace deal, arguing that peace talks need to remain “fixed at the regional level” to avoid “external destructive intervention”. He specifically warned that efforts by the United States and the European Union to sideline Russia from the peace process could pose security threats, alleging that such moves are “undermining stability in the Caucasus”. Russia has long accused the West of trying to kick the country out of the peace processes in the Caucasus, while blaming Armenia for cooperating with the West to achieve this goal. 

Lavrov’s comments come as Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange new rounds of counter-proposals on the text of a potential peace treaty. The peace talks intensified following the Kazan meeting in late October, when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev instructed their foreign ministries to boost the pace of negotiations. During the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia once again proposed its backing the negotiations, but Yerevan rejected its former traditional ally’s involvement. 

One of the differences between Yerevan and Moscow’s stance on peace is the proposed corridor route to connect Azerbaijan’s western regions with its exclave of Nakhchivan. Under the terms of a Russia-brokered 2020 ceasefire, Moscow had anticipated taking a central role as a security guarantor in the corridor’s management. However, Armenia’s resistance to ceding control of the route to foreign actors has frustrated Russian officials, who have repeatedly pressured Yerevan to fulfil the terms of the 2020 agreement.

Since Azerbaijan’s military reclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, Armenia has sought to distance itself from Russia and bolster ties with Western powers. 

While claiming that peace is within reach, Armenia and Azerbaijan still work to overcome some crucial challenges – particularly Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution to recognise Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, and the delimitation of the remaining areas of the international borders of the two countries. Yerevan has proposed to sign the deal without agreeing on all of the points, with Baku firmly objecting to this proposal.