Serbia’s economic growth is projected to slow to around 3% in the first quarter of 2025, as political unrest and ongoing protests continue to disrupt the country, according to a flash estimate cited by President Aleksandar Vucic on March 31. The growth rate marks a deceleration versus the 3.3% GDP increase in the final quarter of 2024.

In 2024, Serbia maintained one of the highest growth rates in Europe, with real GDP growth estimated at 3.9%, supported by strong consumer spending and government investments linked to preparations for Expo 2027. Prior to the political unrest, the National Bank of Serbia had forecast 4.5% growth for 2025, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission had anticipated 4.1% and 4.2% growth respectively.

In a televised interview on March 31, Vucic said that Serbia’s growth could have been as high as 3.8% in the first quarter of 2025 if it were not for the blockades and political turmoil caused by student-led protests, strikes and blockades in recent months.

"They have ruined us. All these political factors and blockaders have destroyed us … they have slowed our growth rate," Vucic said during the interview with Pink TV. "In the first quarter, according to flash estimates, it will be around 3%, and it could have been 3.6% and 3.8%, if we did not have this kind of cruelty and this kind of terror that we had."

The protests, which began following a fatal railway station accident in Novi Sad last November, have since evolved into a nearly daily series of actions, including strikes, road blockades and mass rallies. These actions have disrupted various sectors of the economy, raising concerns among analysts that the unrest is also damaging Serbia’s international image.

Vucic highlighted the broader economic impact of the protests, saying that the political instability had been detrimental to sectors like tourism, VAT collection, sales and trade. "Everywhere you will be able to see the decline that is directly based on the destruction of the image of Serbia, on the unrest in Serbia and the violence they carried out for four months," he continued rather dramatically.

The protests do seem to have impacted on the tourism sector, with a 3.2% decline in tourist arrivals reported in February 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. Overnight stays also fell by 5.4%, according to data from the Republic Institute of Statistics (RZS), marking the first downturn in tourism since the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ongoing political instability has also raised concerns among international credit rating agencies. While S&P Global Ratings upgraded Serbia to investment grade status last year, Fitch has withheld Serbia’s full investment grade status, citing ongoing concerns about governance and political instability.

In January, the resignation of Serbia’s prime minister, following mass student protests, likely influenced Fitch’s decision not to follow S&P’s lead. Fitch maintained Serbia’s BB+ rating, one notch below investment grade, attributing this decision to concerns over political stability.

The government, including central bank officials, has repeatedly pointed to the protests as a key factor affecting the country’s economic performance. While this narrative aims to discredit the protests, it is undeniable that the political unrest, coupled with the decline in tourism and the potential for further downgrades by rating agencies, presents a challenge to Serbia’s short-term growth prospects.