Ukraine's electricity transmission system operator (TSO) Ukrenergo said a “catastrophe” in the next few months was unlikely, but warned the population to brace for a very difficult winter after Russia destroyed half of the country’s heating and power generating capacity, Ukrainska Pravda reported on August 30.

The company's CEO, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, made the comments in an interview with the BBC shortly before the large-scale Russian missile barrage on August 26.

"We have vast experience, which no one else has. I'm confident we won't let a catastrophe occur. Ukrenergo's transport network is far better prepared for the winter of 2024-2025 compared to 2022-2023," Kudrytskyi stated, highlighting the progress made in fortifying the grid since previous winters.

The Russian barrage largely targeted what is left of Ukraine’s power assets. Previously, the barrage that began in March when Ukraine ran out of air defence ammunition destroyed 90% of Ukraine non-nuclear power facilities, which accounts for about half the entire installed capacity. Ukraine’s total installed power capacity was 58.2 GW in 2021, of which fossil fuels accounts for 28.6 GW, renewables 14.5 GW and nuclear 13.1 GW. The World Bank has said that it will take at least two years to repair the damage, condemning Ukraine to a cold and dark winter this year.

The latest barrage aimed to finish off the job. Two days before the attack, Ukrenergo said that thanks to the end of summer and falling demand for power, Ukraine was about to resume electricity exports to the EU, but following the attack the company reversed that statement and said that Ukraine needs to resume imports. Ukraine was miraculously hooked up to the European network of transmission system operators for electricity (ENTSO-E) on the day before the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022.

Kudrytskyi added a note of caution, acknowledging that the upcoming winter will be very hard. "There may be difficulties. We must also be honest about this. Next winter will definitely not be an easy ride," he admitted. Europe is afraid there may be a second wave of refugees leaving Ukraine if the power situation does not improve by the time the first snows arrive.

"All 9 GW of power generation lost due to Russian missile attacks can’t be fully recovered by winter," Kudrytskyi said. This shortfall means that Ukraine will have to manage with a diminished energy supply, particularly when compared to the situation earlier this year in February 2024.