The global population is projected to grow by more than 2bn people over the next few decades, peaking at approximately 10.3bn in the 2080s before declining to around 10.2bn by the end of the century, according to a new United Nations report.

The World Population Prospects 2024 report, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) on World Population Day, attributes the earlier-than-anticipated peak to lower fertility levels in some of the world's largest countries, notably China. China's population is expected to fall dramatically from 1.4bn in 2024 to just 633mn by 2100.

The global population reached nearly 8.2bn by mid-2024 and is expected to grow by another 2bn over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3bn in the mid-2080s, the report states. The subsequent decline to 10.2bn by century's end represents a significant revision, being 700mn lower than projections made by the UN a decade ago.

Peak likely in 2080s

Previous reports indicated that the world’s population would most likely continue growing past the end of the current century. 

“According to this latest assessment, the chance that the world’s population will peak within the current century is quite high, with a probability of about 80%,” said John Wilmoth, director of the population division at UN DESA.

“This is a major change compared to UN projections from a decade earlier, when the estimation that the population would reach a maximum within the 21st century was around 30%.”  

This latest edition of the report downgrades future population estimates for Asia, Africa and Latin America, while increasing projections for Europe and North America. In contrast to its 2022 publication, which predicted a population peak in 2086 at 10.4bn, the UN now estimates the peak will occur slightly earlier, in 2084, with a maximum of just under 10.3bn.

The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6% lower — around 700mn lower — than anticipated a decade ago. This represents a major shift with important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet,” said Navid Hanif, assistant secretary-general for economic development at UN DESA. 

“For instance, rapid growth in some contexts is likely to magnify the investments needed to eradicate poverty and malnutrition and ensure universal access to healthcare, education and other essential services in countries that are already experiencing severe social and environmental impediments,” Hanif told a press conference marking the release of the report. 

“Conversely, population decline in other contexts may require innovative policy responses to address potential macroeconomic, labour market, social protection and national security ramifications.” 

Shrinking populations 

The projections “signal we have come to end of a process of rapid growth on a global scale that began in the second half of the 20th century,” Clare Menozzi, senior population affairs officer within the population division at UN DESA, told the press conference. 

However, as the report shows, population trends are not uniform across the globe, with some countries and territories expected to see decades of rapid population growth, while others have ageing and declining populations.

In 2024, population peaks have already been observed in 63 countries and territories, including China, Germany, Japan and Russia. These populations are projected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years. 

This includes almost all countries from Emerging Europe, with several — notably Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Lithuania and Moldova — projected to experience some of the deepest declines in their population globally over the next three decades. 

A recovery in Ukraine’s population is anticipated as refugees return to their homeland, but the country is on a long-term downward trend and its population is expected to drop by around 60% by the end of the century, according to the median projection from the UN. This is the steepest long-term decline across the Emerging Europe region. 

Still growing 

Another 48 countries, such as Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, are expected to reach their population peaks between 2025 and 2054.

For the remaining 126 countries and territories, populations are anticipated to grow until at least 2054. 

This includes the five Central Asian republics, whose populations are expected to continue to grow this century, with Uzbekistan’s population set to more than double by 2100. 

The group also comprises India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the US — some of the most populous countries in the world. 

The UN data confirms that India has overtaken China as the world's most populous country, following a rapid decline in China's fertility rates, which have been below the replacement rate for a prolonged period.

Nine of these countries, including Angola, the Central African Republic, Congo, Nigeria and Somalia, are projected to experience very rapid growth, with populations doubling between 2024 and 2054.

This growth will heighten demand for resources, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where urbanisation and rising living standards could exacerbate environmental challenges.

Previously, the world's population surged over the past 75 years, rising from an estimated 2.6bn in 1950 to 8bn in November 2022. Since then, it has grown by roughly 2.5% to 8.2bn.

Fertility declines 

Falling fertility rates are the primary driver of this slowdown in population growth. Globally, the average number of children per woman has more than halved since the 1960s, from over 5 to 2.3.

Fertility rates in Europe, the Americas, and Asia are now below or close to two children per woman, while in Africa, the figure has dropped from nearly seven in the 1970s to under four today. The UN expects this trend to continue, with rates falling to less than three by 2050 and approaching two by the end of the century.

"More than half of all countries and areas have fertility rates below 2.1, the level required for a population to maintain a constant size," the report said. Nearly a fifth of countries, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea, and Spain, have what UN DESA terms 'ultra-low fertility' with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.

The average age of the global population is increasing, with the number of people aged 65 and older expected to surpass those under 18 by the late 2070s. This shift is partly due to increased life expectancy and decreased mortality rates over the past three decades. By the late 2050s, over half of global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, up from 17% in 1995.

The 28th edition of the World Population Prospects report provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and includes projections up to 2100.