Turkey’s approval for Sweden's Nato membership has caused another big diplomatic embarrassment for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s radical rightwing government, as Hungary could now be the last country to approve Swedish accession and it has nothing to show for its obstruction.  Of the 31 Nato members, only Turkey and Hungary have yet to approve Sweden's Nato accession.

The Hungarian strongman appears to have blocked Swedish membership of the military alliance partly as a favour to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan but the Turkish leader does not seem to have forewarned Orban about the shift in his position.

Hungary’s obstruction in the last few months represents a moral low in foreign policy, experts said, adding that it deals a blow to the country’s already tarnished reputation.

The news that Erdogan gave his consent to the Turkish parliament to ratify Sweden's Nato accession on July 10 caught policymakers in Budapest off guard. There was a sense of confusion in pro-government media, which speculated that the impasse over Turkish’s objection could take weeks, if not months.

Sweden and Finland applied to join Nato last year in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Finland joined the alliance in April. The Hungarian government only gave its approval once Turkey signalled to give its consent, but even after 18 months, the Fidesz-led majority in parliament found no time to pass the legislation.

Despite  Orban’s pledge to his Swedish counterpart, Budapest did not put the law to vote last week before the summer recess. Instead, lawmakers voted to amend the controversial law on teachers and the 2024 budget in the last sessions before the break. This means that unless House Speaker Laszlo Kover convenes an extraordinary session, the legislation could be passed only in late September during the autumn session. 

According to the latest reports from Tuesday night, Orban convened an extraordinary, multi-day cabinet meeting for Wednesday to discuss the latest developments after the Nato summit.

The confusion over the swing in the Turkish position was palpable among the few remaining pro-Atlantic politicians within the Fidesz ranks. When asked about the prospect of an extraordinary session, Zsolt Nemeth dithered, saying that "we will be smarter after the meeting between Orban and Erdogan".

Analysts predict that the government navigated itself into a diplomatic dead end. There was nothing to gain from delaying Sweden's accession, as it only alienated allies and Stockholm.

Geopolitical analysts widely agree that Hungary's obstruction of Sweden's membership has significantly harmed the country's already tarnished reputation. Former foreign minister of liberal SZDSZ and ambassador to Slovenia, Istvan Szentivanyi, called the entire procedure a pathetic farce.

"The Orban government, which clings to the idea of national sovereignty, has become a pathetic henchman of the Turkish despot", he added.

There were numerous reasons given for postponing legislaton. At the onset, the government’s strategy was to seek leverage in talks with the European Commission, which blocked billions of forints of grants to Hungary due to corruption and rule-of-law concerns.

As the spring session of parliament kicked off, Fidesz politicians began to accuse the two Nordic countries of spreading "outright lies" about democracy and the rule of law in Hungary and used that as a pretext to hold up the ratification procedure. After a Hungarian delegation concluded talks Finland and Sweden in March, government politicians said all obstacles were cleared and officials set March 31 as the date for the vote for both countries.

Orban himself has touted that the government was supporting Sweden’s membership, but there was opposition from the Fidesz fraction, a rather unlikely scenario in a party on a tight leash.

Prior to attending the Nato summit in Vilnius on July 11, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the government had submitted its proposal to parliament months ago.
"We obviously did that because we support the ratification ... when parliament concludes the ratification process is a technical issue," he said.

Hungary’s illiberal strongman has found a solid ally in Erdogan since he first swept into power in 2010. There are chilling similarities between the two radical rightwing leaders, who foster nationalist visions and have a strong, religious support base in the countryside. Orban has also come under pressure for his unorthodox economic policies, although his government has refrained from intervening in monetary policy directly.

Both Orban and Erdogan ran on strong anti-LGBT platforms during their respective election campaigns, and resorted to fear-mongering to accuse political rivals of being puppets controlled by foreign forces. Orban was the first EU politician to congratulate the Turkish leader on his presidential election victory, even before the polls closed.

Hungary has also joined the Turkic Council, with the prime minister seeking partnerships among autocratic Asian leaders while escalating his anti-EU rhetoric.