Poland entered a period of prolonged political struggle on the night of October 15 when the results of the election were announced, showing that the era of right-wing radicals from Law and Justice (PiS) is over.

A four-party liberal-left coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk took over in mid-December – only after PiS exhausted all legal possibilities to delay the transition of power – and was immediately faced with the chaos PiS had left. Moreover, it was also faced with the PiS-friendly President Andrzej Duda guarding it.

Early in 2024, the political outlook is that the new government is struggling to push through key reforms against a hostile president and the still strong PiS, which are stopping at virtually nothing to discredit Tusk and his cabinet.

Arguably the key reform that Tusk has undertaken is rolling back the hugely controversial changes in the judiciary that PiS had implemented while in power.

That met fierce resistance from Duda and the PiS-engineered Constitutional Tribunal and other institutions where PiS had planted loyalists, such as the National Public Prosecutor’s Office. Attempts by the government to “restore rule of law” were openly sabotaged by Duda and others from the PiS’ camp, threatening to make the government and the biggest opposition party follow separate legal orders.

That will likely be the political picture in Poland throughout 2024 and for a large part of 2025, which is when Duda will step down after his second – and last – term runs its course.

Before that happens, however, Duda appears more likely than not to derail key government initiatives in a strategy to make Tusk ineffective and prone to lose support ahead of the next election in 2027.

In an extreme scenario – although the one currently still considered unlikely – Duda unleashes a crisis early in 2024 by sending the Tusk government’s budget bill for a review by the PiS-loyal Constitutional Tribunal. As the Tribunal takes its time, the deadline for submitting a budget bill expires, giving Duda a pretext to cut the new parliament’s term short and announce a snap election.

Snap election notwithstanding, there are several reforms – economic or otherwise – planned by the coalition government, such as reinstating Sunday shopping, increasing the tax-free part of income and keeping the social programme of monthly child benefits of PLN800 (€183).

The new government is also expected to support the development of the capital market in Poland. The pro-market approach assumes that the stock market should become one of Poland's economic growth drivers by increasing the market's role in financing the economy.

The new government will also push harder for a clean energy transition, supported by inflows of EU funds. The government pledged to free up the development of wind power and vowed to continue PiS’ programme of building Poland’s first nuclear power plant.

Among not strictly economic undertakings, the Tusk administration prioritises huge pay increases for teachers and the public sector, liberalising access to “day after” contraception pills and to abortion, and improving the state of the environment.

The likely bumpy ride of the government against PiS’ “deep state” will take place in the context of two elections, both happening in the first half of 2024. Local elections – scheduled for April – will precede the EU vote in June.

Both votes will be used by the government to affirm its position ahead of the 2025 presidential election and put PiS on to the defensive. For PiS, they will be the first opportunity since October to apply pressure on the government but also to assess its own standing after losing power. 

On the international arena, the situation appears simpler. The Tusk government has been clearly welcomed in Brussels as a guarantor of ending Poland’s isolation in the bloc and his election promises a more constructive cooperation on the EU’s key policies such as the climate or migration. Tusk’s stint at the helm of the European Council in the first half of 2025 will most likely help.

On the other hand, Poland remains in a tight geopolitical spot. A Poland without bitter political infighting is crucial to European security, as the West becomes more and more wary that it will have to face Russia following any resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war.

 

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