In turbulent times, can any year be anything less than pivotal? 2025 certainly is likely to be just that, with the first six months marked by the campaign ahead of the presidential election’s two voting rounds in May and June, Poland’s presidency of the EU and the onset of the Trump era – and then by what will transpire from those events.

A new president can usher in greater stability for the coalition government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. But if the new head of state comes from the populist opposition, the government is likely to collapse and populists could be back in power again – in 2027 or earlier if a snap election is called.

The backdrop to this potential political instability will be a surprisingly robust economy, with GDP growth projected at around 3.5% in 2025 – one of the fastest growth rates in Europe.

The government is going to navigate some stormy waters internationally, with the uncertain outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine being a top worry. Poland has long warned other EU countries that letting Russia prevail in Ukraine might lead to the Kremlin setting its sights elsewhere in the CEE, especially the Baltic States and Poland itself.

Poland is going to use its six months at the helm of the EU to hammer it home to other EU leaders that the bloc’s security is now priority number one, that can only be attained by ramping up arms production, cooperation in procurements, a boost to defence spending (something urged not only by Russia’s threat but also by Trump) and tightening border security.

“2025 will be a year of positive breakthrough[s]. We have no other choice,” Tusk said in December. 

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