Calin Georgescu, until recently a political outsider with only modest polling numbers, has shocked Romania by winning the first round of the October 24 presidential election. 

While the unexpected rise of the ultra nationalist politician, who has voiced pro-Russian views, has led to speculation that his startling success could have been a result of Russian interference, it reflects a deeper dissatisfaction among voters with the country’s mainstream parties. 

A shock victory

In the first round on November 24, Georgescu surged to the top of the first-round results, leaving the country’s political elite stunned. He secured a 300,000-vote lead over his nearest competitors, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Elena Lasconi of reformist Union Save Romania (USR). One of them will go on to face Georgescu in the runoff in two weeks time. 

Georgescu's rise is all the more remarkable given his outsider status and his very modest polling numbers just weeks before the vote.

In late October, Georgescu was polling at just 5-6%. Despite a sharp rise in the polls in the weeks immediately before the election, neither political analysts nor exit polls predicted his success. 

After polls closed, exit polls conducted by Avangarde and CURS put his share of the vote at around 16% — considerably better than he was polling pre-election but still trailing Ciolacu and Lasconi. It was only when the votes were counted that the scale of his victory became clear. 

Seasoned bureaucrat turned anti-establishment politician

Despite his position as a rank outsider in the presidential race, Georgescu is a longstanding figure on Romania’s political scene. 

He has held various roles in Romania’s government and international organisations, including serving as an advisor in the Ministry of Environment and as executive director of the National Center for Sustainable Development. His name was put forward several times as a potential prime minister candidate during the 2010s. 

He served a stint as a European representative for the Club of Rome, a think tank focused on global issues, and was executive director for the United Nations Global Sustainable Index Institute in 2015-16. 

In recent years, however, Georgescu has become controversial for his extreme nationalist rhetoric and lauding of the leaders of the fascist Iron Guard, a movement allied to the Nazis and responsible for numerous atrocities during World War II. In a 2020 statement, he referred to Ion Antonescu and Corneliu Zelea Codreanu as “heroes” of Romanian history. 

Georgescu doubled down on this theme in 2022, stating, “Everyone has done good deeds and some less good deeds, but historians must evaluate them. Authentic leaders tell the truth.” His refusal to fully disavow these figures led to legal scrutiny under Romania’s laws prohibiting the promotion of fascist ideologies and war criminals.

These statements were too much to stomach even for Romania’s far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), which had supported Georgescu as a prime ministerial candidate in 2020. AUR distanced itself following his remarks. “If he does not clearly clarify his ideology, he must leave,” AUR leader George Simion declared at the time.

Another source of controversy is Georgescu’s critical view of Romania’s Nato membership and its alignment with Western powers. He has described the Deveselu missile defence shield in Romania as “a diplomatic disgrace” and claimed that Nato cannot guarantee Romania’s security.

Such statements have led to accusations that Georgescu is a pro-Russian candidate. Critics have pointed to his frequent criticisms of the West and his suggestion that the US military-industrial complex manipulates global conflicts for profit.

Far-right resurgence

Georgescu’s rise comes in the context of a broader trend of far-right resurgence across Europe. Despite the rise of AUR, Romania has historically been less receptive to such movements. Expectations of a sharp shift to the right in the European Parliament elections in June 2024 proved exaggerated in Southeast Europe, including Romania where AUR came in third place after the two ruling parties. 

Now, Georgescu’s success suggests a shift in public sentiment. Unlike AUR, which struggled to gain traction, Georgescu has managed to channel discontent into a cohesive and compelling narrative, positioning himself as the underdog champion of ordinary Romanians.

Lack of opposition 

In this he was clearly helped by the lack of an effective opposition in Romania since the political system became dominated by a coalition between the centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) and the centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL), which has held power for the past four years. 

While this coalition brought stability, it also alienated many voters, with a lack of clear ideology or vision beyond maintaining political stability.

Meanwhile, Romania’s progressive USR party, once seen as a reformist alternative, has struggled to maintain relevance. 

This vacuum of credible alternatives created fertile ground for Georgescu's anti-establishment message. He positioned himself as a voice for the disillusioned, exploiting a deep reservoir of voter frustration.

Another key factor in Georgescu’s rise was his savvy use of social media, particularly TikTok, where his campaign videos frequently went viral. His messaging resonated with younger voters and those who felt neglected by traditional political platforms. 

His grassroots approach, combined with a populist narrative, allowed him to bypass traditional media channels and connect directly with voters. This strategy mirrored successful tactics used by other far-right politicians across Europe.

As the December 8 runoff approaches, Romania’s political establishment is expected to rally against Georgescu. Analysts predict that his opponent — whether Ciolacu or (more likely) Lasconi — will receive broad support from other parties and factions eager to block Georgescu’s path to the presidency. The second round will thus be a test of whether Georgescu’s populist appeal can overcome a united front of opposition.