Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a second temporary ceasefire in the conflict with Ukraine for the May 9 80^th anniversary of the end of the WWII that will last three days. The ceasefire will be in effect from midnight between May 7 and 8, lasting until midnight between May 10 and 11.

The short halt in hostilities follows on from a 30-hour ceasefire the Russian leader called during Easter. The two holidays are amongst the most significant in the Russian calendar, but both breaks are clearly also gestures to the Trump administration designed to show Russia’s willingness to end the conflict and cast Kyiv in a bad light.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy rejected a seven-point “final offer” ceasefire deal proposed by US President Donald Trump and instead made a counter offer that calls for a complete and unconditional ceasefire before any other negotiations can begin.

Victory Day ceasefire

The Kremlin said the 72-hour ceasefire would run while Putin is scheduled to host international leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the annual military parade on Red Square.

“All military actions are suspended for this period. Russia believes that the Ukrainian side should follow this example,” the Kremlin said in a statement. “In the event of violations by the Ukrainian side, Russia’s armed forces will give an adequate and effective response.”

“If Russia truly wants peace, it must cease fire immediately,” Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said, according to his ministry. He reiterated that Ukraine is ready for a “lasting, reliable, and complete ceasefire” for at least 30 full days. “Why wait for May 8? If we can cease fire now from any date and for 30 days – so that it is real, and not just for a parade,” he said, without confirming whether Kyiv would accept the truce proposal.

Zelenskiy previously condemned the Easter 30-hour ceasefire and claimed Russian attacks continued throughout the proposed stillstand.

Putin told US President's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff during a three-hour meeting last week in Moscow his willingness to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions.

Putin’s announcement comes amidst a flurry of statements from Kremlin officials painting a mixed message. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov laid out the original maximalist line in a TV interview. In addition to granting Russia sovereignty over all the regions it occupies and banning Ukraine from joining Nato, also included a call to demilitarise the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and “denazify” the government. Lavrov listed the conditions:

• Ukraine will not join NATO, it must be “demilitarized” and “denazified”;
• The annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions receives international recognition;
• Sanctions are lifted from Russia, frozen assets are returned to it;
• Russia rejects the US proposal to transfer control of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to Washington and Kyiv; and
• Laws restricting the use of the Russian language, culture, and church are being repealed in Ukraine.

Lavrov said in comments published by Brazil’s O Globo newspaper the same day, where he is on a visit, that Russia is “open to negotiations”, but that “the ball is not in our court” and it was up to Ukraine to make the first move to launch direct talks. Ukraine needs to “cancel” a 2022 decree ruling out negotiations with Russia.

Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, on the other hand, made milder statements saying Russia has never refused to hold negotiations with Kyiv and suggested that everything was up for negotiations with the caveat that the “root causes” of the conflict needed to be addressed.

“The Russian side once again declares its readiness for peace talks without preconditions, aimed at eliminating the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, and constructive interaction with international partners,” Peskov said, adding “the signal for direct talks” must come from Kyiv, citing a 2022 decree in which Zelenskiy banned negotiations with Putin after Russia annexed four Ukrainian regions.

Ukraine, EU sceptical

Ukraine and its European allies remain sceptical of Moscow’s intentions, and even Trump has hardened his line on Russia making first critical comments on Russia’s persistent attacks on civilian targets well after Putin agreed in principle to a 30-day ceasefire, which the Kremlin has not adhered to in practice.

The US president admitted at the weekend that it is Putin who does not want to end the war. Following a brief meeting at the pope’s funeral Zelenskyy said it was a "symbolic meeting" that could become “historic” if it results in joint efforts that lead to peace.

Following a deadly attack on Kyiv last week Trump expressed concern that the Russian leader was "just tapping me along". Washington has warned it may abandon its peace efforts unless significant progress is achieved but has also dropped a tentative deadline of the end of April.

"It makes me think that maybe he does not want to end the war but is merely leading me by the nose, and he needs to be approached differently," Trump remarked. However, Trump believes that possession of occupied Crimea will most likely remain with Russia, and Zelenskyy understands this. He added that regaining Crimea, which has been under Russian occupation for 11 years, will be exceedingly challenging for Ukraine.

US deal

US President Donald Trump is becoming increasingly disillusioned with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said, commenting on the Russian leader's decision to call a ceasefire for the 80th anniversary of the Victory.

"The president has made it clear that he wants to see, first and foremost, a permanent ceasefire," she said during a briefing the same day. 

Trump expanded on the US position that clashes in several points with the hard line laid out by Lavrov this week.

The US will insist that Russia acknowledge Ukraine’s right to develop and maintain an adequately equipped military and defence industry as part of any peace agreement, rejecting Russia’s insistence on a significant demilitarization for Ukraine. This indicates that the Trump administration is seeking certain concessions from both the Kremlin and Ukraine to conclude the war, as both appear immovable on this point.

The Trump administration also wants Russia to return the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to Ukraine, which it seized at the onset of its full-scale invasion – another point Lavrov says the Kremlin will not concede.

The US seeks to secure passage over the Dnieper River and the return of Russian-occupied territories in the Kharkiv region – points the Kremlin has said it is willing to accept.

The Americans have made it clear on multiple occasions that they will not demand recognition from Ukraine and Europe of Crimea as part of Russia, but Trump has suggested that the US will de jure recognise Crimea as sovereign Russian territory and de facto recognition over the four annexed regions.

Additionally, the White House opposes Ukraine being forced to withdraw its troops from those parts of the four annexed regions -- Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – that it does not control. Last autumn the Kremlin suggested there was “limited wiggle room” on the borders of the four regions and more recently Putin has suggested the borders may be drawn along the current line of contact, thus conceding the territory Russia does not actually control.

The US draft contains vague language stating that Ukraine will receive "reliable security guarantees" from European countries and interested non-European states. It also suggests that Ukraine abandon its NATO membership ambitions, but not EU membership.

The US plan includes the lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation and political and economic cooperation with the country. In contrast, Ukraine and its allies suggest easing sanctions only after achieving stable peace and reinstating them if the agreement is violated.

Kyiv said would only consider talks with Moscow once a “genuine ceasefire” has been established.

Andriy Yermak, Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, said on April 28 that Russia’s actions contradicted its stated desire for peace. “Russia is not ceasing fire at the front and is attacking Ukraine with Shaheds right now,” Yermak wrote on Telegram Reuters reports. “All the Russians' statements about peace without ceasing fire are just plain lies.”