Russia is seeking to secure agreements with Syria's new authorities regarding its military facilities in the country following the sudden overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's government, senior Russian officials said on Wednesday, 11 December 2024.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov struck a cautious tone about immediate negotiations on military bases, saying that Syria's new leadership needs time to establish control.

Opposition forces seized control of Syria's strategic Mediterranean port city of Tartus two days ago, consolidating their grip on the country’s regions, but have not forced the Russians who operate the port to leave.

"The power hasn't even changed hands yet, and you're asking about the status of various facilities. Things don't happen that quickly," Ryabkov told reporters in Moscow. "Those who have now come to the levers of power need to deal with the basic needs of the people."

The developments follow a dramatic weekend that saw Assad flee to Moscow after Syrian rebels announced his overthrow on state television on December 8.

According to Bloomberg, citing three sources familiar with the situation, Russian intelligence officers orchestrated Assad's escape through the Khmeimim Air Base, with the aircraft's transponder deliberately switched off to avoid tracking.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that President Vladimir Putin personally granted Assad political asylum, while emphasising the necessity of engaging with Syria's new power structures.

"Obviously, we cannot avoid contact with those who control the situation on the ground, because, I repeat again, we have our facilities there, our people first and foremost," Peskov said, according to Vedomosti newspaper.

The situation is particularly sensitive for Moscow as the armed opposition now fully controls the Latakia province, home to Russia's Khmeimim Air Base and its naval facility in Tartus.

Tartus has become a crucial naval base for Russia in the last years and has allowed Russia to rebuild its naval power in the Mediterranean so that it again poses a threat to much of the EU. The loss of Tartus would drive Russia’s navy back to the only other warm water ports in the West in the Baltic Sea or Murmansk, Russia’s northern port in the western part of the country. There are restrictions on warships passing through the Bosphorus making Russia’s naval bases in the Crimea less attractive.

Mohammed al-Bashir, reported to be aligned with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has been named interim Prime Minister until March 2025. The former head of the Syrian opposition delegation at peace talks, Mohammed Alloush, told TASS that decisions about Russian military bases would be made based on "the benefits and interests of the Syrian people."

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova outlined Moscow's position, calling for an inclusive political process "in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254" while emphasising the protection of Russian assets and personnel.

"We advocate for the swift establishment of an inclusive political process, which should be carried out by Syrians themselves on a platform of broad national dialogue," Zakharova said at a briefing on 11 December.

The Kremlin claims to have received security guarantees for its military installations, though the rapid power shift has left questions about the long-term status of Russia's military presence in Syria, which has been a crucial foothold in the Middle East since Moscow's military intervention in 2015.

The Bloomberg report suggests that Russian officials had concluded Assad's position was untenable, offering him "immediate" safe passage out of Syria after convincing him he could not win against the opposition forces.

The developments mark a significant shift in the Syrian conflict, which has lasted over a decade, and signal potential changes in the regional power balance as Russia moves to protect its strategic interests under Syria's new leadership.