Kazakhstan’s oil exports could be cut by as much as 30% for up to two months following the February 17 Ukrainian drone strike on a key pipeline pumping station, Russia’s state pipeline operator Transneft said on February 18.

Such a cut would be equivalent to 380,000 barrels/day.

The drone hit inflicted “serious damage” on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC’s) Kropotkinskaya pumping facility in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Region, Reuters cited Transneft as saying. It is the CPC pipeline’s largest pumping station. In all, Transneft said, at least seven drones packed with explosives and shrapnel, were involved in the attack. 

The pipeline, which runs to the Russian Black Sea coast at Novorossiyska, is used to ship around 70%-80% of Kazakhstan’s exported oil. It is vital to the Kazakh oil shipments of companies including US giants Chevron and ExxonMobil.

Kazakhstan’s oil exports make up approximately 1% of global oil supply, enough to mean the disruption will register with world oil markets. 

The attack came on the same day that Kazakhstan aligned with Hungary in backing the idea of talks on the Ukraine conflict between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US counterpart Donald Trump as well as between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and top US diplomat Marco Rubio. The Lavrov-Rubio talks took place today in Saudi Arabia.

The joint standpoint on backing the talks was outlined by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, who was paying a visit to Kazakhstan.

Russia has condemned the strike on the pumping station, labelling it a provocative act.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, claimed that the disruption could destabilise the oil market, trigger oil price spikes and cause direct financial damage to American companies. He also suggested that the attack, given that it hit a pipeline operation partially owned by US companies, was a deliberate move against Donald Trump, who is seeking to lower oil prices. He hinted that Washington’s response would be closely watched.

Other key stakeholders in the CPC include the Russian state, Russian oil company Lukoil and Kazakhstan’s state-owned energy firm KazMunayGas. 

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces claimed responsibility for the attack, describing it as action against fuel and energy infrastructure that serves the Russian military. Also hit was the nearby Ilsky oil refinery. 

The CPC route was exempted from intensified US sanctions imposed on Russia by the outgoing Biden administration on January 10.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Kazakhstan has grown increasingly uneasy over its heavy reliance on the CPC pipeline—this was especially the case in 2022, when Russian authorities restricted exports via the pipeline due to alleged technical issues and storms. Some observers expressed their belief at the time that the restrictions were part of a wider effort by Moscow to formulate counter-sanctionary measures against the West.   

As concerns about potential disruptions to the CPC route continued to grow, Kazakhstan began taking steps to diversify its oil export routes.

To mitigate dependence on the CPC, Kazakhstan has sought to develop trans-Caspian export routes, which would allow its crude to reach global markets via Azerbaijan’s Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. This corridor runs from Azerbaijan to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast via Georgia, offering an alternative path to bypass Russian territory.