Romania’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) won 22.9% of the votes for the Chamber of Deputies and 23.3% for the Senate in the parliamentary elections on December 1, with votes from 97.25% of polling stations counted. 

This gives the PSD the highest score among the parties running for the two chambers of parliament. However, the emergence of a ruling majority is complicated by the high scores obtained by radical rightwing parties, after the shock presidential election first round lead taken by far-right, pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu last weekend. The PSD will have to bring in a new partner if it is to continue its ruling coalition with the centre-right National Liberal Party (PNL). 

The more moderate — compared to the smaller far-right parties — nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) led by George Simion came second after the Social Democrats, with 17.6% of the votes for the Chamber of Deputies and 17.9% for the Senate.

After the release of exit polls, which were largely confirmed by partial results, Simion stressed that the far-right “sovereignist” parties will become the largest political group in parliament, together taking a slightly higher share of the votes than the parties of the former ruling coalition, the PSD and the PNL. 

Meanwhile, the PSD’s leader, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, thanked voters after the election for showing "how solid democracy is in Romania”, a PSD Facebook post said. Commenting on the elections he said: “It is an important signal that the Romanians have sent to the political class.”

The PNL came third, with 13.8% and 14.6% of the vote, respectively. Together with the Social Democrats, it took around 37% of the vote, slightly smaller than the 40% combined scores of the far-right parties, AUR, SOS Romania with 7.0%/7.4% and the newly founded Party of Youth (POT) with 6.1%/6.0%.

POT, which supports Georgescu, is set to get its first MPs after passing the 5% electoral threshold. POT’s president, Anamaria Gavrila, has announced a three-day water fast to celebrate the party’s success. 

Among the other parties, the reformist Union Save Romania (USR) has not captured the momentum from the strong performance of its leader Elena Lasconi in the first round of the presidential election, and received only 11.8%/11.8% of the votes. 

The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) obtained a better score than in previous years (6.6%/6.6%), possibly as a result of better turnout among ethnic minorities prompted by the resurgence of nationalist parties.

The formation of a ruling majority will depend a lot on the outcome of the second round of the presidential election, where Georgescu will face Lasconi — unless the Constitutional Court scraps the first round after the recount of the votes, a decision expected on December 2. 

The most likely scenario is a broader version of the “grand coalition” of the Social Democrats and Liberals, with the addition of either nationalist AUR or reformist USR. The latter scenario, with the UDMR as the fourth member, would result in a robust, pro-EU coalition but it would require all its members to tone down their rhetoric and find a common voice.

The far-right parties are likely to work together as an opposition group, but probably not in power. This will, however, depend on the outcome of the presidential election second round. As a win by Georgescu — a scenario that is still unlikely — could pave the way for the formation of a minority far-right coalition.