Hungarian analysts are split on MNB’s future course as rate hold looks imminent
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Thailand’s economic outlook for 2025 is under pressure from earthquake-related losses and the threat of US tariff hikes, with potential financial damage estimated at THB30bn ($820mn) and GDP growth at risk of a 1% decline, economists said at a Fitch Ratings seminar on April 1, according to a report by The Nation.
Yunyong Thaicharoen, senior executive vice president at Siam Commercial Bank, presented the "Thailand 2025 Economic Outlook", forecasting GDP growth of 2.4% amid mounting global uncertainties. He warned that upcoming US tariffs, set to be announced on April 2, could target countries with trade surpluses, including Thailand. “With a THB45bn trade surplus, Thailand could see its GDP reduced by 1% if the US imposes a 10% tariff,” Thaicharoen said, noting that the final impact would depend on the actual tariff rate and potential negotiations.
The March 28 earthquake is projected to result in economic losses of approximately THB30bn, primarily due to a slump in tourism. Hotel and flight cancellations are expected to lead to a shortfall of 400,000 visitors in April, affecting the annual tourism target of 38.2mn arrivals. The property market has also felt the impact, with a 1% decline in condominium and high-rise building transfers in the Bangkok metropolitan area, slowing efforts to reduce the stock of around 7,400 unsold units.
"It will take approximately three to four months to restore confidence among tourists and in high-rise building transfers," Thaicharoen said according to The Nation, adding that swift government measures could accelerate recovery. Thaicharoen noted that the global economy is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2025, close to the long-term average of 3%. However, Thailand’s post-COVID-19 recovery ranks 162nd out of 189 countries, highlighting the country’s slow rebound. He emphasised the need for economic stimulus to close the gap between Thailand’s actual and potential GDP growth, which would also ease debt burdens in the business and household sectors. The Bank of Thailand is expected to implement two more interest rate cuts in 2025, bringing the rate down to 1.5% from the current 2%, Thaicharoen said.
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