Donald Trump's return to the White House has drawn sharply contrasting reactions worldwide, with traditional US allies expressing deep concern while rivals and emerging powers show marked optimism, according to a major new survey.

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) study of 28,549 people across 24 countries revealed particularly strong support in Saudi Arabia, India and Russia, where 60% of respondents viewed Trump's election as positive for American citizens, with 49% seeing it as beneficial for Russia.

In China, 46% viewed Trump's return positively, despite his threats of imposing 60-100% tariffs on Chinese imports. The prospect of such unpredictable trade policies, including potential global tariffs ranging from 10% to 20%, has already sparked international concerns and market jitters as Trump prepares to take office on January 20.

"Europeans are almost alone in mourning Trump's election," the ECFR report stated, with South Korea standing as the sole non-European nation expressing significant concern. Half of British respondents fall into the "Never Trumpers" category, representing the highest concentration globally of those who view his victory as detrimental both to Americans and world peace.

The trans-Atlantic alliance appears increasingly strained, with only one in five Europeans now viewing the United States as an ally, whilst two in five Americans consider the EU an ally. The proportion of Americans who see the EU as a "necessary partner" has grown from one-quarter to one-third.

In Ukraine, the data revealed dramatic shifts in public opinion. The expectation of victory has plummeted from well over 50% in May 2024 to just over one-third by November. Only about one in ten Ukrainians now expect outright victory under Trump, whilst one in five anticipate a compromise settlement.

The ECFR writes that "Trump's welcome by a swathe of people in non-Western countries may well be driven by an enthusiasm for winners" but cautioned that "these warm attitudes could change quickly, perhaps because of Trump's tariff policies, or if he falls short of publics' expectations around ending conflicts in Europe and the Middle East."

In a secondary interview with IntelliNews, Saudi observers have expressed mixed reactions to Trump's return, particularly regarding potential impacts on oil markets. "We are the ones harmed by this policy because oil prices drop when production increases," noted one Saudi expert.

Another Saudi commentator, Mohammad bin Abdullah, suggested a more aggressive approach: "The best means of defence is attack, including returning production levels to previous levels and letting price control be determined by the ability of high-cost countries and companies to continue operations. This will reduce their ability to spend capital, and then the price will return to current levels without losing production or market share."

In several major non-Western powers, including India, Indonesia, China and Saudi Arabia, many respondents consider Russia and Ukraine equally responsible for the ongoing conflict, potentially indicating support for pushing Ukraine towards major concessions in any settlement.

"Here in Europe, we are worried. However, the rest of the world is not particularly concerned about the magnitude of change that might come," market strategist Bill Blain said in emailed comments last week.

The European Union, despite its concerns, is viewed globally as a major power capable of dealing on equal terms with the US and China. "Ironically," the report noted, "the people who believe least in European power are the Europeans themselves."

The survey, conducted in November 2024, employed various methodologies across different regions, including online surveys in most countries, face-to-face interviews in India, and telephone interviews in Ukraine. The study covered 16 European nations and eight non-European countries, including major economies such as Brazil, China, India and Indonesia.