Turkey is not only failing in Central Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe but everywhere, Ilhan Uzgel, the country’s shadow foreign minister, wrote on April 22 in a column entitled “As the foreign policy falls apart on all fronts…” for local daily Birgun.

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has led Turkey into the biggest strategic losses and most extensive collapse in foreign policy in recent history, according to Uzgel, a member of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP).

“The country's capacity is being spent on keeping the Erdogan regime on its feet. The cost of mistakes in foreign policy is spread over time, the consequences are severe and the losses are very difficult to reverse,” he asserted.

Here are some translated and summarised excerpts from Uzgel’s column:

Turkic states recognise Republic of Cyprus

The negative consequences of the recognition of the Greek Cypriot administration in the south of the divided island of Cyprus as the Republic of Cyprus by some Central Asian countries with the encouragement of the EU, along with their opening of embassies there and their decision to not recognise the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC/TRNC), will be felt more severely in the coming years.

“EU will pay homage to Erdogan”

Donald Trump’s return to the American presidecy divided the US and the EU, particularly in relation to the Ukraine War. And Europe’s security concerns grew.

The Erdogan government thought that its Trump cards were taking on big importance in this context and that its bargaining power had increased.

The self-confidence of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, foreign minister Hakan Fidan along with journalists close to the government reached a peak.

They were saying: “European security cannot be thought of without Turkey.”

The atmosphere that Europe, rebuffed by Trump and wary of Vladimr Putin, had fallen into Erdogan’s hands and was doomed to bow to him was prevalent in government circles, who spread this image with great enthusiasm.

[Some Western media, particularly British media, are still circulating this idea - Editor's note].

Turkey to rule Europe, Ukraine, Syria and energy flow

For the same people, the need for Turkey's presence in the affairs of Ukraine and Syria had also grown exponentially. And, Turkey became the most critical country for energy security with its energy hub plans.

Amid growing global tensions, Europe would establish its strategic autonomy together with Turkey. And, Turkey would even benefit from the financial resources that the EU would allocate.

This was the message that Turkey’s government circulated.

Fiasco

The April 4 fiasco (the EU's signing of the standpoint on Cyprus with some Central Asian 'Stans') occurred at a time when street protests were being held in Turkey against the jailing of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the central bank was selling $10bn in one day to defend the lira and the country was turning inward.

All the boasts of the AKP government were shattered when the EU included the recognition of Southern Cyprus and non-recognition of Northern Cyprus in its latest Central Asia Global Gateway Investment Plan.

First time in history

The EU’s move simultaneously caused great damage to Turkey in the top three most important regions to the country, namely Central Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe.

Turkey's foreign policy history has never seen such a strategic collapse in three critical regions at the same time. This was also the lot of the Erdogan government.

“Don’t exaggerate yourself so much”

With its moves, the EU has delivered the following messages to Turkey:

1) The EU has very clearly shown to Erdogan the limits of Turkey’s strategic importance. With this Cyprus gambit, Brussels was essentially telling Erdogan: “Don’t exaggerate your importance so much”.

The EU has reversed the discourse of Erdogan and Fidan along with the equations suggesting that “the EU needs Turkey” and “the EU is a group of small countries hiding behind America”.

2) From now on, Erdogan and Fidan will sit at the security-centered bargaining table with the EU, having conceded and digested all this.

If, in response to the Cyprus move, they refrain from cooperating on security, this time they will have to retreat from key foreign policy claims.

[Note that the "security" references in EU-Turkey relations are in effect limited to Turkey’s service as a frontline against migrants heading north as well as a refugee hub. The "security" references do not suggest that the EU will buy arms from Turkey or that Turkey will join a formulated EU alliance of military forces - Editor's note].

3) The relations between Turkey and the EU have long since ceased to be "value-oriented" and the Turkey membership process has been shelved for a long time.

Ankara's hope was to position relations on a geopolitical axis in its favour in the new global conjuncture.

The EU delivered its bitter message at a time when Erdogan claimed to be the strongest player in the region.

While Erdogan was pursuing a bargain similar to the refugee agreement with the EU in the 2015-16 period, the bloc rather isolated Turkey and trivialised Erdogan through the move with the Stans.

The idea of a Turkic world has failed for two centuries

Erdogan has devoted 20 years to developing relations with the Stans. Old formations were regrouped and renamed under the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in 2021.

The Erdogan administration claimed that Central Asia, just like it has claimed as regards the Middle East, would be its responsibility.

The failure with Central Asia has dealt a great blow to the idea and ideal of the Turkic world.

A real blow from a diplomatic perspective came as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on April 4 all signed the UN Security Council resolutions at the recent EU-Central Asia summit meeting in Samarkand that pledge no recognition of the TRNC.

Ruler of the Mediterranean

The AKP government’s retreat in the Eastern Mediterranean is not a new development. The withdrawal process began around 2021. This withdrawal (for instance, shelving gas drilling attempts) was a result of another clandestine bargain between the AKP and the EU.

The Eastern Mediterranean was already a strategic defeat for Turkey. The country, which had the capacity to be the most important power in the region, became the most isolated and the most ineffective country.

Silence of the lambs

Erdogan, Fidan and Binali Yildirim [a Turkish ex-PM currently chairman of the council of elders that is an official organ of the OTS] did not manage to utter a single sentence to defend themselves. They waited silently for their defeat to be forgotten.

A country, which once had the possibility of EU membership and at the same time established an organisation of Turkic states, has nothing to say or any move to make in the face of the tragic strategic collapse it is experiencing.

The government clearly did not see this Cyprus move coming, did not have the means to prevent it and could not develop a countermove.

Just as a military and energy cooperation was developed by Gulf countries, Southern Cyprus and Greece, while bypassing Turkey, the ties between Central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean were also established without Turkey.

Turkey has had no foreign policy for a long time

In fact, what is happening is not a surprise. Because for a very long time, there has been no framework, line or strategy that we can call the foreign policy of a country of critical importance on the scale of Turkey.

The capacity of a country like Turkey has been spent, and continues to be spent, to keep the Erdogan regime on its feet.

The world sees the Turkish state's behaviour as just like the behaviour of those regimes it sees as trying to shape each regional development with short-term, petty bargaining.

“Don't be stupid”

As a result of the lack of a sound foreign policy, Trump once insulted Erdogan by writing “Don't be stupid” to him in a letter. Occasionally, he says “You're smart”.

The EU has made a relatively small move in its relations that is profitable for the Stans. In doing so, it has taught Turkey a lesson on how to conduct diplomatic bargaining and it has sunk Turkey's remaining reputation in the international arena.

If you drift about so much and create trust issues in foreign policy, the world will give you an answer from somewhere, at the right time.

Falling apart

Lately, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), currently referred to as the Syrian government or Damascus, imposed high customs duties in Syria. It did not appoint Turkmens as part of the government and gave Latakia port to France.

Israel bombed the Syrian airports where Turkey wanted to establish bases.

Qatar began joint drilling with the Greeks.

The AKP and the Erdogan government have, meanwhile, only been able to watch these developments all around them, many of which have long-term costs for the country.

On the diplomatic front, Qatar stood out in the Israel-Hamas talks. Saudi Arabia mediated in the Ukraine-Russia talks and Oman hosted the Iran-US talks.

No one came knocking on Turkey’s door.