US President Joe Biden finally granted Ukraine permission to use long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) missiles in strikes deeper into Russian territory, but has imposed restrictions on their use, according to reports on November 17.

The long-sought permission comes as Russia deploys an estimated 12,000 North Korean troops to the line of contact with Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) forces holding Russian territory in the Kursk region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been lobbying for months for this permission as part of his victory plan, which he says is essential for keeping Russian forces in check. But The New York Times (NYT) reports that the White House has imposed certain geographic restrictions on the use of the missiles.

The decision provoked a strong reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who warned that Russia would consider the use of US-made long-range missiles to hit Russian targets as Nato’s direct participation in the Ukraine war.

“If this decision is adopted, it will mean nothing less than direct participation of Nato countries, the US, European countries in the war in Ukraine. This direct participation will of course significantly alter the very nature of this conflict,” Putin told local press, adding that Russia would then take “appropriate actions.”

Putin argued that Ukrainian soldiers are not qualified to use the ATACMS missiles and that they need Nato operators. Moreover, he pointed out that the missiles rely on satellite information for navigation, something that Ukraine also doesn’t have and will be supplied by Nato.

“Ukraine is already striking Russian territory with its drones… But when it comes to the use of long-range missiles of western production, that is a whole different story,” Putin said. “Strike sites using modern long-range high-precision systems of Western production; Ukraine can’t do that. It's only possible using satellites which Ukraine doesn’t have; using data from the EU or the US.”

“That is why it is not about Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. It’s not about whether or not to allow Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. We are talking about a decision on whether Nato countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not,” Putin added. “If this decision is made it can mean nothing other than Nato is directly participating in the conflict in Ukraine.”

Putin has drawn red lines many times that have been repeatedly crossed by Ukraine without sparking WWIII, including the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)’s invasion of Russian territory itself. Nevertheless, part of the Kremlin’s strategy is to keep tensions high, as this very effectively results in the White House restricting the supplies of arms and missiles as part of its escalation containment strategy. Kyiv will welcome the permission to use ATACMS but early reports suggest that, like the tanks and jet fighters, only a limited number of missiles will be supplied.

Some but not enough

Central to the US escalation management policy, the White House has provided Ukraine with “some, but not enough” arms and weapons systems; enough to prevent Ukraine’s defeat but not enough to win the war. In particular, the US has been nervous about Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, afraid that successful strikes would send international oil prices spiking. More generally, the Nato allies worry that Ukrainian missile strikes on important military facilities inside Russia would provoke Russia to escalate the war further.

Since the start of last year, Kyiv has circumvented these restrictions by launching its own increasingly long-range drones on targets inside Russia as part of its drone war with Russia. But as the payloads these drones can carry is limited, they have not had a big impact on the Russian economy or its ability to fight.

Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) must be pleased with the permission, but disappointed with the restrictions. “Strikes are not made with words,” Zelenskiy stated during his nightly address on Sunday. “The missiles will speak for themselves.” AP reports he appeared underwhelmed by the news.

Fearing the worst, Zelenskiy has changed his rhetoric from victory to “resistance” in just the last week, in what appears to be anticipation of drastically reduced aid in 2025.

Creeping escalation, growing defeatism

It appears the decision was partly inspired by the arrival of thousands of North Korean troops on the battlefield in Kursk and that the missile permissions could be specifically limited to use in this theatre of operation.

Estimates from US and South Korean intelligence suggest up to 12,000 North Korean soldiers are now operating in Russia and have been accompanied by significant arms shipments to replenish Moscow’s strained munitions supplies. These reinforcements will allow Moscow to release more of its own troops which can be redeployed on the Donbas front, the current epicentre of combat.

Biden’s decision marks another notch up in the creeping escalation that has marked the war for the last year, but comes at a time when Ukraine’s position looks increasingly untenable. As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine fatigue has been building steadily over the last year and Ukraine continues to lack men, money and materiel to fight the war due to the half-hearted Western support.

Calls for the start of ceasefire negotiation have been building with several leading western publications now calling the war “unwinnable”. In the latest of these the NYT also ran an editorial calling for an end to the fighting in one of the most explicit admissions that a US “proxy war” in Ukraine has failed.

The NYT admitted that the "disastrous war" in Ukraine is “unwinnable” for Ukraine, that Ukraine is US "protectorate," where the US used an "ugly" and "morally reprehensible" strategy of using Ukraine as a proxy to wear down Russia’s military might.

"Dozens of people, and often hundreds, are dying every day in this grinding war. [Incoming US president Donald] Trump should seize the chance to save lives. Nobody is coming to save Ukraine. A settlement will eventually be needed,” the paper said. “Despite flashes of spectacular success by Ukrainian forces, the Russian position has gradually strengthened, and there is no reason to expect Mr. Putin to lose the upper hand now. That may sound like defeatism, but it’s also realism.”

In Washington the talk is all about how to end the conflict in Ukraine with several plans being proposed, including freezing the frontline where it is and setting a 1,200km DMZ to separate the two forces, before kicking off protracted negotiations to settle the issues of sovereignty over occupied territories.

The US has so far committed $56.2bn to supporting Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February 2022, but Trump and Congress has made it clear it wants to reduce the levels of support. Europe likewise is running out of money for the war with Germany and France already announcing steep cuts to the aid they can send to Ukraine this year, as the Continent slips further into recession.

In a controversial decision German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Putin for the first time in two years in what some see as an attempt to test the waters of potential negotiations. According to the readouts from the calls little progress was made. With Putin in an increasingly strong military position, he was in little mood to compromise and repeated to Scholz that any ceasefire would have to take into account the “realities on the ground”; interpreted to mean Russia intends to keep most of the territory it has occupied.

To underscore his advantage, Russia launched a fresh barrage of missile attacks at the weekend and also resumed attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities as temperatures in Ukraine fall below zero.

Zelenskyy’s posted a message of condolence on Telegram following a Russian attack on a nine-story building that killed at least eight people in the northern city of Sumy, 40km from the border with Russia at the weekend.

“And this is the answer to everyone who tried to achieve something with Putin through talks, phone calls, hugs and appeasement,” Zelenskyy said in his evening address.

Previously halting energy facility attacks was the key point in the first tentative ceasefire negotiations slated to happen in Qatar in August. But those talks were called off before they began after Ukraine’s Kursk incursion.

Zelenskiy sharply criticised Scholtz’s call with Putin, arguing that it legitimises Russia and its narrative that only embolden him, pointing to the weekend’s fresh attacks as evidence.

“And this is the answer to everyone who tried to achieve something with Putin through talks, phone calls, hugs and appeasement,” Zelenskiy said.

Long-range missiles not a game changer

Just as with the other landmark weapons supplied to Ukraine, such as Germany’s Leopard tanks and US-made F-16 fighter jets, the supply of the powerful ATACMS missiles will be limited in number and won’t be a gamechanger, according to reports.

With a maximum range of 300km, ATACMS missiles have a limited range but could target key sites such as the Kursk airfield and surrounding military bases, lengthening Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) supply lines and pushing them farther back from the frontline.

US-made ATACMS missiles can strike targets up to 300km away that puts most of Russia’s Kursk region into range and several important military bases supplying Russian forces in Ukraine - ISW

However, defence analysts argue that even a small number of strikes deep inside Russian territory could disrupt AFR military logistics and force redeployments.

A source familiar with the Biden administration’s decision told the NYT that the missiles could be used in retaliation for North Korea’s backing of the Russian invasion.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, speaking ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil, urged restraint. “We want peace, we want fair peace,” he said, without elaborating on how the UN could facilitate such an outcome, AP reports.