A second Trump administration in the US could become a test for India’s historically strong ties with Russia. With increasing pressure from the US on defence and energy, India may face difficult decisions about its alliances. While India has aimed for a “multi-aligned” foreign policy, the push from a Trump White House to draw New Delhi away from Moscow could create a significant pivot in the Indo-Russian relationship. The implications could reverberate through defence sales, Russian oil imports, and India’s approach to Washington’s other allies.

Shifts in defence procurement

India’s relationship with Russia has long been defined by substantial defence trade, yet the gradual shift towards US defence technology is becoming apparent. A second Trump presidency might amplify Washington's push for India to diversify away from Russian arms. India recently signed a landmark $3bn deal for 31 MQ-9B drones from General Atomics, a move seen as a response to both regional security demands and a sign of India’s increasing alignment with US defence suppliers.

This deal adds to a series of significant US platforms India has acquired in recent years, such as the P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft, which beat out Russian options and signalled India’s confidence in US technology. Additionally, India has procured Apache and Chinook helicopters, enhancing its tactical and operational capabilities in ways that Russia’s offerings have struggled to match. These acquisitions underscore a noticeable trend that the US is, at least in part, displacing Russia as a preferred defence partner for India, particularly in advanced, interoperable platforms that facilitate strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

This shift aligns with the Trump administration's broader goal of embedding India as a cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific strategy—a role that becomes more credible with each high-value US defence acquisition.

Russian oil and the threat of escalating sanctions

Beyond defence, India’s purchase of Russian oil could come under severe scrutiny if Trump re-enters the White House. India’s import of discounted Russian crude has been a means of stabilising its energy needs amid global price volatility. However, a second Trump term would likely mean ramped-up sanctions on Russia, potentially limiting the mechanisms through which Indian entities transact with Russian energy suppliers. Trump’s previous administration targeted major Iranian and Venezuelan oil avenues, and Russia’s energy exports could now face similar moves if Trump pressures India to reduce its dependency.

The US may impose secondary sanctions, creating compliance obstacles for Indian banks and insurers involved in transactions with Russian firms. This approach aligns with Trump’s past foreign policy stance, which prioritised zero tolerance on countries purchasing energy from “adversarial” states. Without accessible carve-outs or exceptions, India could face an economic squeeze on energy, risking higher domestic prices and complicating its fiscal position. The Trump administration’s energy policy is transactional, and India’s flexibility on Russian oil purchases could quickly become a key factor in negotiations with Washington.

Diplomatic turmoil over Sikh separatism

Adopting a hard-line approach towards Sikh separatist groups operating on US soil, Trump will likely align its actions with the broader policy of cracking down on groups deemed to challenge US allies or disrupt international stability. Trump has historically shown little patience for separatist movements he views as jeopardising relationships with key partners. A Trump administration might also take an unorthodox approach to the simmering tension between India and Canada over Sikh separatism, particularly the issue surrounding the Khalistani movement.

The recent diplomatic dispute between New Delhi and Ottawa, sparked by accusations linking Indian agents to the assassination of a Sikh separatist in Canada, could become a significant issue for a Trump-led White House. Trump may use this as an opportunity to demonstrate his support for India, potentially aligning more closely with New Delhi against what it sees as Canada’s tolerance for separatist extremism.

If New Delhi starts to prioritise issues affecting its internal security over its ties with Russia, Washington under Trump might become much more indispensable for at least 4 years - setting back Russia’s broader hopes of BRICS and SCO unity in becoming a bulwark against the G7 and the collective West.