Eastern Europe / Opinion
KSE: Most of Russia’s shadow fleet operates outside western insurance system
KSE Institute has released a new report, “Oil Spill Insurance and the Shadow Fleet,” examining P&I insurance coverage across the global tanker fleet, with a particular focus on the ships that deal with Russian oil.
Ruble stabilises but long-term strength depends on sanctions relief
After collapsing last summer to RUB100 to the dollar , the Russian ruble has recovered a lot of ground and current settled at a relatively strong level of RUB90 to the dollar. Further appreciation will depend on sanctions relief, says Rencap.
MACRO ADVISORY: A new hope, but far from Mission Accomplished
The return of Realpolitik. True to his promise, President Trump and his team have actively engaged with the Kremlin and appear to have reached the broad outline of a roadmap towards a peace process.
McFAUL: Why Is Trump trying to lose our new cold war with China?
In 2017, President Trump’s first administration published a historic National Security Strategy, which said we had entered a new era of great power competition with China and Russia. He was right. But now his policies mean we could lose that fight.
COMMENT: Ukraine eyes key role in Azerbaijani gas transit to Europe
Kyiv wants to become a transit hub for Azerbaijani gas after ending Russian gas transport, but plan faces political, logistical and economic hurdles.
COMMENT: Trump should do a deal with OPEC and tighten sanctions further to collapse the Russian economy
As its parting shot, the Biden administration imposed the toughest sanctions yet on Russian oil. The incoming Trump administration is changing tack and talking about negotiations, but should tighten sanctions further and cause Russia real pain.
KSE: The cost of the damage and funding needs to rebuild Ukraine's economy
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has caused massive destruction of civilian infrastructure. This includes a wide variety of assets and sectors, which have suffered at least $500bn in damage.
KSE: the G7’s $50bn ERA loans to provide Ukraine with stable financing for next few years
The G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine mechanism is designed to provide Ukraine with an additional $50bn in financial assistance over 2024-27, and will provide a stable source of funding over the next few years.
ING: EU considering Russian aluminium ban in new sanctions push
The European Union is reportedly considering more import restrictions on Russian aluminium as part of a new package of sanctions targeting Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. But any impact is likely to be limited.
COMMENT: Why is Ukraine struggling to mobilise its citizens to fight?
Ukraine’s mobilisation efforts to replenish its manpower are failing and increasingly threatening Kyiv’s ability to defend itself against the Russian aggression, leading Russian analysts Peter Korotaev and Volodymyr Ishchenko say.
RIDDLE: Sanctions and the Eurasian Economic Union
The first months of 2025 are likely to mark a turning point in the history of sanctions against Russia: after three years of "escalating" but steadily reducing the tempo of sanctions policy. Are sanctions working?
COMMENT: Trump demands Europe import more US LNG, as the EU proposes banning Russian LNG completely. Neither will happen.
US President Donald Trump wants Europe to buy more US gas or face tariffs, and ten EU member states have again called for an end to all Russian imports. Neither of these things are going to happen. Europe remains hooked on Russian gas.
COMMENT: No, Russia is not facing a banking crisis
No, Russia is not on the cusp of a banking credit crisis. That was the conclusion of a paper by Alexandra Prokopenko, a political economy analyst.
COMMENT: With Trump back in the White House, Europe may need to turn to Turkey to strengthen its security
Analyst suggests EU cannot hope to deter Russia effectively without closer cooperation with Ankara.
COMMENT: Armenia makes a strategic turn from Russia towards the West
Moscow realises it is losing Armenia, which has been considered its main ally in the South Caucasus for decades.
COMMENT: Gulf states court Russia but stop short of strategic shift
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are increasingly backing Russia in its geopolitical and economic standoff with the West, but they have stopped short of fully embracing Russia.
MACRO ADVISORY: Sanctions SITREP — only seven more sleeps
We are going to bed seven more times until the second Trump era begins. What's on the agenda?
MACRO ADVISORY: Interpreting Dostoyevsky for Gen-Z and Z Politicians
One of the most surprising legacies of last year is the revival of interest in, and discussion about, Fyodor Dostoyevsky (1921-1881), both outside and inside Russia. Quoting Dostoyevsky has become very fashionable in Russian political debates.
RIDDLE: Is Russia in a stagflation crisis?
In his recent article, the economist Vladislav Inozemtsev takes aim at those arguing that Russia faces an imminent economic crisis due to an unusual combination of high interest rates and inflationary pressures: "Stagflation."
CENUSA: Polish EU Presidency puts Russian hybrid threats in the spotlight
After six months under a Russian-aligned Hungarian presidency of the EU Council, the leadership has now passed to Poland, a strong critic of Russia’s disruptive influence in Europe.