Kazakhstan managed to stabilise inflation below double-digits in 2024, but inflationary pressures remain, with the rate standing above the central bank’s target level of 5%-6%. This is largely due to Kazakhstan’s continued economic reliance on Russia, especially on the import side. The Kazakh currency, the tenge, continues to follow fluctuations in the Russian ruble. 

The ex-Soviet state has continued to develop its capacities to function as a transit zone for trade between China and Europe that bypasses the territory of Russia. 

The country anticipates lower oil revenues in 2025 coupled with higher withdrawals from the “rainy day” National Fund. That remains an abiding concern for international observers. 

Kazakhstan, meanwhile, continues to look for ways to diversify oil exports away from the Russia-dependent CPC pipeline, but hurdles remain on this front. The country is unlikely to significantly reduce its dependence on the CPC any time soon. 

On the political side, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev continued crackdowns on dissent in 2024 and did not revisit plans to improve local self-governance around the country. At the same time, the authorities appear to be strengthening ties with Russia, after two years of flirting with a public image of a country that’s distancing itself from Moscow. Tokayev is likely preparing to pick Russia’s Rosatom to take the lead on constructing the country’s first nuclear power plant (NPP).