Poland's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased 0.6 points to 48.8 in January, the economic intelligence company S&P Global said on February 3 (chart).

Despite the increase, the indicator has lingered below the 50-point mark separating contraction from growth for 33 months now. The uptick has analysts cautiously optimistic about 2025 in Poland’s manufacturing although there is a caveat concerning the possible slapping of trade tariffs on the EU by President Donald Trump, expected sometime this month.

For now, “the headline PMI edged closer to recovery territory in January, mainly due to a much slower decline in output but also as the pace of input destocking eased,” Trevor Balchin, S&P Global’s economics director, said in a statement.

“On the other hand, new orders continued to fall in January and manufacturers cut staff. But the reduction in jobs was modest and should be viewed in the context of sustained job creation during the final quarter of 2024,” Balchin also said.

Polish manufacturers also appear to be growing more optimistic about the future, with companies reporting a recovery in Western European markets, which is corroborated by encouraging flash January PMI data for the Eurozone.

In the wake of Trump’s tariffs on EU goods, the zloty has been weakening in early February, which could turn out a boon for Polish exporters (although other drawbacks of the trade war could well neuter it). The zloty remains well above recent lows against the euro, however.

“A stronger złoty limits export competitiveness but helps lower import costs, especially in industries producing intermediate goods. Growing optimism raises hopes for continued improvement and the end of one of the longest downturns in history,” PKO BP said in a comment.

“The new US administration and its initiated trade war present both a challenge and an opportunity for European industry,” PKO BP also said.

In terms of actual data, Poland’s industrial sector – covering manufacturing, energy production, mining and quarrying, as well as water and waste management – once again disappointed in December, the latest available figures show.

Output expanded just 0.2% year on year in the twelfth month after a revised decrease of 1.3% y/y in November, GUS said in late January. Analysts expected the sector to grow 1.2% y/y in December.

GUS will publish January data from Poland's industrial sector in the third week of February.

Meanwhile, the producer price index (PPI) declined 2.6% y/y in December, easing the decrease rate after a revised fall of 3.8% y/y the preceding month, GUS also said.