The world risks missing the tripling renewables target pledged at COP28 in November. That is despite renewables becoming the fastest growing source of power, says the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

To stay the course, the world will now have to grow renewables capacity at a minimum annual rate of 16.4% up until 2030. The unprecedented 14% increase of renewables capacity during 2023 meant a 10% compound annual growth rate from 2017-2023, said the agency’s The Renewable Energy Statistics 2024.

Still, the trend sees renewable energy being on its way to overtake fossil fuels in global installed power capacity. This is because of the constant decreasing additions of non-renewable capacity over the years, coupled with renewables’ growth.

However, if last year’s 14% increase rate continues, the tripling target of 11.2 TW in 2030 outlined by IRENA’s 1.5^°C Scenario will fall 1.5 TW short, missing the target by 13.5%, said the report. This will risk the goals of the Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

But if the world keeps the historic annual growth rate of 10%, it will only accumulate 7.5 TW of renewables capacity by 2030, missing the target by almost one-third.

“Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent,” said IRENA’s director-general, Francesco La Camera.

COP28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber said: “That means increasing collaboration between governments, the private sector, multilateral organisations and civil society. Governments need to set explicit renewable energy targets, look at actions like accelerating permitting and expanding grid connections, and implement smart policies that push industries to step up and incentivise the private sector to invest.”

In terms of power generation, the latest data available for 2022 confirmed yet again the regional disparity in renewables deployment. Asia holds its position as leader in the global renewable power generation with 3,749 TWh, followed for the first time by North America at 1,493 TWh.

The most impressive jump occurred in South America, where renewable power generation expanded by nearly 12% to 940 TWh, due to a recovery in hydropower and the greater role of solar energy.

With a modest growth of 3.5%, Africa increased its renewable power generation to just 205 TWh in 2022, despite the continent’s tremendous potential and immense need for rapid, sustainable growth.