Romania's governing coalition, comprised of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and National Liberal Party (PNL), appears set to secure victories in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.

An outcome other than a coalition victory would be unexpected and likely lead to a fragile government, a scenario not wanted by Romania's Western partners as the country continues to play a critical role during the conflict in Ukraine.

The first round of the presidential vote is scheduled for November 24, followed by parliamentary elections on December 1 and likely a second presidential round on December 8. 

PM Ciolacu set to take the presidency 

PSD leader and Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu is the clear frontrunner in Romania’s presidential race, while the competition for second place — which will determine who faces Ciolacu in the runoff — remains open. 

The latest poll shows a close race between George Simion of the rightwing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and Elena Lasconi of reformist Union Save Romania (USR).

Among the other main candidates still in the race, PNL leader Nicolae Ciuca has gained momentum recently, while the popularity of independent candidate Mircea Geoana slides.

Opposition struggles against coordinated coalition tactics

Meanwhile, the most likely outcome of the general election is another term for the grand coalition formed by the PSD and its former rival the PNL. 

The reformist USR, sidelined from government by President Klaus Iohannis in 2021, was hoping to make a comeback and form a rightwing coalition with the PNL. However, this hinges on Lasconi reaching the presidential election runoff, a prospect that appears unlikely. 

Observers suggest the PSD is pursuing a calculated strategy involving the tacit or overt cooperation of Simion’s nationalist AUR and the PNL. 

AUR has gained traction by tapping into the nationalist sentiment of a portion of the electorate, including the diaspora. 

Meanwhile, Moldova’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has urged Moldovans with dual citizenship, often a key constituency in past elections, to vote for Ciuca and the Liberals, leaving Lasconi reliant on domestic support. 

At the same time, USR’s dismal showing in the European elections earlier this year and internal discord have disheartened its traditional base, some of whom have shifted to alternative candidates like former Social Democrat leader Mircea Geoana.

Divided opposition, united ruling coalition

Prominent opposition figures have been sidelined or diminished. Former president Traian Băsescu has largely retired, while Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan faces a referendum on November 24 to secure a stronger mandate in the City Council. 

Dan has pledged to cast a "useful vote" to counter Simion but has avoided endorsing a specific candidate. He spoke of "rightwing parties" (including the Liberals) and not "opposition" (a vague notion at this moment), carefully choosing his words. 

The PSD and PNL, despite public clashes, have maintained a tacit understanding, exchanging mild accusations while keeping the door open for post-election cooperation. 

Recent attacks include allegations against the PSD over its involvement in the Nordis real estate scandal and questions about the PNL’s financing. Both Ciolacu and Ciuca have hinted at their ability to resolve these issues and resume their partnership after the elections, citing the need for stability amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Post-election tensions and power sharing

While the coalition is expected to maintain its dominance, internal tensions and intense negotiations are anticipated as PSD and PNL leaders vie for influence in the next government. The balance of power between the two parties will be shaped by the outcomes of the presidential and parliamentary elections, setting the stage for their next phase of cooperation.